Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 7/29/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 17, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) against the Connecticut Sun at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Golden State Valkyries
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
19-8
10-18
Spread
-3.5 -108
+3.5 -112
Moneyline
-172
+141
Total
Over 156.5 (-112)
Under 156.5 (-108)
Where
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
When
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Time
10:00 PM EDT
TV
USA Net
The Golden State Valkyries and the Phoenix Mercury meet Wednesday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The Golden State Valkyries won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on June 9th, 2026, by a final score of 87-81, making it back-to-back wins for the Valkyries in this head-to-head matchup.
Golden State Valkyries Recap
The Golden State Valkyries come into this game looking to rebound from a 90-82 loss at the hands of Washington last time out to sit at 19-8 this season. After this game, the Valkyries will head home for a back-to-back against the Toronto Tempo.
Valkyries Have Win Streak Snapped
Gabby Williams leads Golden State in scoring with 16.3 PPG along with 3.9 RPG and 2.4 APG while Veronica Burton has 13.4 PPG with a team-high 5.6 APG to lead Golden State in assists. Janelle Salaun has 13.8 PPG with 4.2 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Golden State so far this season while Kayla Thornton’s chipped in 8.7 PPG with 5.5 RPG.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 86-82 win over the Sparks last time out to sit at 10-18 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head home for a game against the New York Liberty.
Mercury Win Back-To-Back Games
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.6 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.5 PPG with 6.9 RPG and a team-high 8 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 10 PPG with 2.7 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.
Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: July 29, 2026
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Mercury have won each of their last seven home games after winning as underdogs.
The Valkyries have lost 12 of their last 15 road games against Western Conference opponents.
The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games after winning as underdogs.
The Valkyries have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three road games against Western Conference opponents.
Why the Golden State Valkyries will win
The Valkyries have won each of their last 15 night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mercury have lost 11 of their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine night games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Valkyries’ last four games.
Total Points Facts
Eight of the Valkyries’ last nine night games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nine of the Mercury’s last 11 home games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.3) this season.
DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 49 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (23.8%) this season.
Golden State Valkyries Player Facts
Kiah Stokes has recorded 12 games with 1+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Veronica Burton has recorded three games with 5+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (37.0%).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.7).
The Golden State Valkyries rank 1st for opponent points per game this season (76.4).
The Golden State Valkyries rank 1st for opponent assists per game this season (18.4).
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m on the Valkyries in this one. I get the case to be made for a home underdog in spots, but for me, Golden State is still one of the WNBA’s elite and I don’t expect that to change here. The Mercury have been one of the most disappointing teams in the WNBA this season and a layoff because of the all-star break doesn’t erase that. I’ll roll with Golden State here.
