Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 9/21/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 17, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers (5) drives between Los Angeles Sparks guard Erica Wheeler (17) and forward Nneka Ogwumike (30) during the second half at College Park Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Dallas Wings
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
26-16
15-27
Spread
-5.5 -112
+5.5 -108
Moneyline
-218
+180
Total
Over 172.5 (-112)
Under 172.5 (-108)
Where
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
When
Monday, September 21, 2026
Time
10:00 PM EDT
TV
USA Net
The Dallas Wings and the Phoenix Mercury meet Monday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The Dallas Wings won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on September 19th, 2026, by a final score of 87-82, making it three straight wins for the Wings in this head-to-head matchup.
Dallas Wings Recap
The Dallas Wings come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Mercury last time out to improve to 26-16 this season. After this game, the Wings will head on the road for a game against the Seattle Storm.
Wings Win 6 Straight
Paige Bueckers leads the Wings in scoring with 20.5 PPG along with 4.1 RPG and a team-high 5.9 APG so far this season. Three more Wings players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Arike Ogunbowale who has 15.2 PPG with 3.1 RPG and 3.2 APG, Jessica Shepard who has 14.4 PPG with 4.9 APG and a team-high 11.1 RPG on the glass, and Azzi Fudd who adds 13.1 PPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Dallas up to this point in the year.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to Dallas last time out to slip to 15-27 this season. After this game, the Mercury will take on the Las Vegas Aces to close out the regular season at home.
Mercury Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 21.3 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.2 PPG with a team-high 7.7 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead Phoenix in rebounding and assists so far this season. Two more Mercury players average double figures in scoring as well this season including DeWanna Bonner who has 10.6 PPG with 6.1 RPG, and Jovana Nogic who adds 10.4 PPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack has chipped in 8.4 PPG with 6.8 RPG as well for the Mercury this season.
Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 21, 2026
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The home team has won each of the Wings’ last 10 games.
The Wings have lost each of their last five road games.
The Wings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games against Western Conference opponents.
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Wings’ last eight games.
Why the Dallas Wings will win
The Wings have won each of their last 15 games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mercury have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games following a road loss.
The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Mercury’s last eight games.
Total Points Facts
Eight of the Wings’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Mercury’s last five home games following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas has recorded 5+ rebounds and 5+ assists in 18 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Natasha Mack ranks 6th amongst qualified players for effective field goal percentage (60.9%) this season.
Dallas Wings Player Facts
Arike Ogunbowale has recorded eight games with 3+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Awak Kuier has recorded 2+ steals + blocks in each of her last nine games – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (9.7).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.5).
The Dallas Wings rank 1st for assists per game this season (22.0).
The Dallas Wings rank 14th for opponent turnovers per game this season (12.8).
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m leaning towards the Wings in this one. I get the case to be made for Phoenix as a home dog as I question Dallas’ motivation spot knowing they’re in the playoffs and knowing they’ll play a top-4 team in the first round on the road. That being said, they still somewhat control their own future if they can get some help and I think it’s a team with motivation against a team without it. Give me Dallas.
