Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 7/17/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Phoenix Mercury Alyssa Thomas (25) talks to a teammate across the court during a game against the Seattle Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, on June 20, 2026.
MATCHUP
Connecticut Sun
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
6-18
8-17
Where
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
When
Friday, July 17, 2026
Time
10:00 PM EDT
TV
WNBA League Pass
The Connecticut Sun and the Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The Connecticut Sun won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on September 6th, 2025, by a final score of 87-84, snapping Phoenix’s two-game win streak in this head-to-head matchup.
Connecticut Sun Recap
The Connecticut Sun come into this game looking to add on to their 90-87 win over Portland last time out to sit at 6-18 this season. After this game, the Sun willhave their rematch against the Mercury before going on the road to Indiana.
Sun Snap Two-Game Slide
Aneesah Morrow is averaging 10.5 PPG and 9.4 RPG while Brittney Griner has 13.5 PPG with 5.6 RPG and Leila Lacan has 12.4 PPG with 4.6 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Connecticut so far this season. Aaliyah Edwards has added 9.1 PPG with 3.6 RPG and Saniya Rivers has 3.1 APG as well this season. Diamond Miller also has 8.6 PPG with 2.4 RPG as well this season.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from a 104-100 loss at the hands of Minnesota last time out to sit at 8-17 this season. After this game, the Mercury will take on the Sun at home in their rematch before heading on the road for a game against the Sparks.
Mercury Lose 4 Straight
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.3 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.2 PPG with 6.8 RPG and a team-high 7.9 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 10.2 PPG with 2 RPG and 2.5 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.
Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: July 17, 2026
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Sun have lost 29 of their last 33 night games against Western Conference opponents.
The favorites have won seven of the last eight games between the Mercury and Sun.
The favorites have covered the spread in six of the Mercury’s last seven games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Sun have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games against Mercury teams that held a losing record.
Why the Connecticut Sun will win
The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight night games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The road team has won four of the Sun’s last five games.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Sun have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Sun’s last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Mercury’s last four home games following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.0) this season.
DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 48 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (24.3%) this season.
Connecticut Sun Player Facts
Leila Lacan has recorded at least 1 steal in 18 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Charlisse Leger-Walker has recorded five games with 3+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent free throw percentage this season (80.4%).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (17.9).
The Connecticut Sun rank 14th for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (24.2).
The Connecticut Sun have suffered the largest comeback loss after Q1 this season – led by -14 points @ Chicago Sky on June 5.
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m on the Sun and the points here. I’m just back to believing that the Mercury shouldn’t be favored against anyone right now and I don’t think that changes here. Connecticut’s been a lot more competitive in recent weeks and I think they take it to Phoenix and maybe win this game outright but give me the Sun and the points to be safe.
