Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics - 10/6/19 WNBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics - 10/6/19 WNBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

WNBA Basketball: Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 3:30 pm (Mohegan Sun Arena)

The Line: Connecticut Sun -4 -- Over/Under: 174

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The Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun meet Sunday in game three of the WNBA Finals at the Mohegan Sun Arena.

The Washington Mystics look for a win here to retake a series lead and steal back home court advantage. The Washington Mystics are averaging 89.7 points on 47 percent shooting and allowing 79 points on 43.8 percent shooting. Elena Delle Donne is averaging 19.5 points and 8.3 rebounds while Emma Meesseman is averaging 13.1 points and 3.2 assists. Kristi Toliver is the third double-digit scorer and Aerial Powers is grabbing 3.2 rebounds. The Washington Mystics are shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc and 87.7 percent from the free throw line. The Washington Mystics are allowing 34.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32.7 rebounds per game. The Washington Mystics have won eight of their last 11 road games.

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The Connecticut Sun can move one game closer to a WNBA title with a victory here and a 2-1 series lead. The Connecticut Sun are averaging 81.3 points on 42.6 percent shooting and allowing 77.5 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Jonquel Jones is averaging 14.6 points and 9.7 rebounds while Courtney Williams is averaging 13.2 points and 3.8 assists. Alyssa Thomas is the third double-digit scorer and Jasmine Thomas is dishing 5.1 assists. The Connecticut Sun are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 70.4 percent from the free throw line. The Connecticut Sun are allowing 30.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 36.9 rebounds per game. The Connecticut Sun have won 11 of their last 12 home games. 

The Mystics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Sun are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Connecticut and the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The over is 11-5 in Sun last 16 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The over is 5-1 in Mystics last 6 overall.

The Connecticut Sun have already been a covering machine at home where they win by an average of 10.8 points. You have to like them even more here with Elena Delle Donne and Ariel Atkins expected to miss this game due to injuries. We just saw how much the Mystics struggled in game two once Delle Donne left the game. The Connecticut Sun should have a field day here and this line feels a bit light. I'll lay the reasonable number with the home team.

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Randy’s Pick Connecticut Sun -4

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.