Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov Prediction 5/30/25 French Open Tennis Picks

Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov meet in the third round of the 2025 French Open at Roland Garros. The match is scheduled for Friday, May 30. Here’s our Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov prediction. This preview will also include a Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov pick.

Tommy Paul Preview

Tommy Paul is the 12th seed at the French Open and competing in his seventh main draw. Paul has reached the third round for the second successive year at Roland Garros. To get there, Paul won his opening match against Danish lucky loser Elmer Moller 6-7, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1. In the second round, Paul trailed Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics by two sets to love but avoided a shock early exit with an incredible comeback. He prevailed 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 in three hours and 42 minutes. He finished the match with 33 winners and 40 unforced errors. Paul hit four aces and three double faults. 

Paul landed 71% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (75/98). He won 43% of second serve points (17/40) and saved six of 11 breakpoints. Paul has won 10 of his last 13 matches on clay. He will look to reach the second week of the French Open for the first time when he takes on Karen Khachanov. Only one of his three defeats on the surface has been to a player outside the top 10 this season.

Karen Khachanov Preview

Karen Khachanov is the 24th at the French Open and battled to reach the third round for the seventh time. Khachanov is a two-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros and has advanced to the last 16 four more times. The Russian won his opening match this week against Aleksandar Vukic in straight sets. In the second round, Khachanov saw off Sebastian Ofner in five sets. He led by two sets to one, but lost the fourth set after dropping his serve in the ninth game, allowing Ofner to force a fifth set. The Austrian took a 2-0 lead at the start of the deciding set, but it was Khachanov who went on a rampage, winning six straight games and completing the victory.

Khachanov tallied 45 winners and 55 unforced errors. That included seven aces and seven double faults. He landed 62% of first serves in play and won 76% of first serve points (80/105). Khachanov won 41% of second serve points (26/64) and saved 10 of 15 breakpoints. This was Khachanov’s ninth win from 14 matches on clay.

Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov Head-To-Head

Paul and Khachanov have met two times on tour. Paul leads 2-0 and beat Khachanov at this year’s Madrid Open in three sets.

Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Look, Paul has been sneaky solid on clay this year with 10 wins from 13 matches. Not many players hit double digits before the French Open. But the concerning reports of Paul carrying an abdominal injury don’t sound too encouraging and he will be evaluated. He starts the match as the slight underdog. Remember this is the one Grand Slam Paul has never reached the second week even while fully healthy. Although this matchup would favor Tommy given his superior movement and forehand consistency, the injury is a wrinkle I cannot ignore.