Brisbane Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
12:00 AM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -500 / Karolina Muchova +320
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Preview
Aryna Sabalenka crushed Australian Open champion Madison Keys to reach her third successive semifinal at the Brisbane International. Sabalenka has won each of her three matches this week in straight sets, opening with a 6-0, 6-1 win over Cristina Bucsa and a 6-3, 6-3 win over Sorana Cirstea.
Against Keys in the rematch of the 2025 Australian Open final, Sabalenka hit 2 aces and 1 double fault. She landed 67% of first serves in play and won 78% of first serve points (25/32). Sabalenka won 50% of second serve points (8/16) and saved one of two break points. Sabalenka has reached the final of Brisbane in each of her last two appearances, but can she make it three?
While many expected Elena Rybakina to be Sabalenka’s opponent in the semifinal, Karolina Muchova had other ideas. The Czech ended the current longest active winning streak on the WTA Tour when she toppled the Kazakhstani.
Rybakina was on a 13-match winning streak dating back to the end of last season when she won titles in Ningbo and the WTA Finals. But Muchova came in with the perfect game plan to frustrate the big-hitting Rybakina.
The Czech won 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 in two hours and 4 minutes. In the victory, Muchova withstood nine aces from Rybakina’s racket and won 46% of return points (42/92). Muchova won 74% of first serve points (37/50), a figure that was better than Rybakina’s 67%. Muchiva saved one of three break points on her serve.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Head-To-Head
Sabalenka and Muchova have played four times before this. Muchova leads the head-to-head 3-1. In fact, Muchova has won each match between them since Sabalenka got the first win back at the 2019 WTA Elite Trophy.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Prediction
Muchova delivered a huge upset in the quarterfinals, and beating Sabalenka would be even bigger considering the ranking, and Sabalenka has always been the player to beat at this stage of the competition for the last three to four years. Muchova doesn’t give you rhythm and against big hitters, it’s a recipe for success.
You don’t normally see Rybakina cut a frustrated figure on the court, but that’s the kind of gam plan Muchova brought to the table to frustrate the Kazakh. If she can keep points unpredictable and force Sabalenka into playing an extra shot, then she could very well turn Sabalenka’s power strength into a liability. I’ll back the upset here.