Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Prediction 5/12/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Rafael Jodar faces Learner Tien in the fourth round of the 2026 Rome Masters. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12. Here’s our Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien prediction. This preview will also include a Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien pick.

Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Preview

Rafael Jodar is coming off a three-set victory against Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi in the last round of the Rome Masters. The match took 26 games to decide. Jodar dominated the first set 6-1 in half an hour. But Arnaldi, cheered by the crowd, leveled the match when he secured two breaks in the second set, which he eventually won 6-4.

The Italian briefly led at the start of the third set when he broke Jodar’s serve again. But serving at 3-2, Arnaldi dropped his serve and the match was all square. Arnaldi failed to hold in his next service game and Jodar made no mistake when serving for the match. In the victory, Jodar recorded 28 winners and 29 unforced errors. That included 1 ace and 5 double faults. Jodar landed 66% of first serves in play and won 62% of first serve points (31/50). Jodar won 58% of second serve points (15/26) and saved one of five break points. Jodar improves to 14-2 on clay this season. He has only lost to Jannik Sinner and Arthur Fils.

Learner Tien pulled off a big shock in the last round as he defeated Alexander Bublik in three sets at the Rome Masters. It is the first time Tien has reached the last 16 in this tournament. Tien lost the first set 4-6 in under 40 minutes, but restored parity when he broke Bublik’s serve for the first time in the sixth game of the second set.

There was some late drama in the third set as Bublik foiled Tien’s attempt to serve for the match at 4-5. But the American broke for a 6-5 lead and was able to clinch victory in the 12th game. Overall, Tien hit 36 winners and 31 unforced errors in the match. That included 3 aces and 2 double faults. Tien landed 67% of first serves in play and won 68% of first serve points (43/63). Tien won 65% of second serve points (20/31) and saved four of six break points.

Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Head-To-Head

Jodar and Tien have played once. That match was in the group stage of the 2025 Next Gen ATP Finals. Jodar prevailed in five sets.

Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Prediction

Both players are now firmly part of the main tour, having just graduated from the Next Gen class. Although it is Tien who has had early success mostly on hard courts, on clay, Jodar is clearly superior at this juncture with the ability to flatten shots and move with so much authority and he’s had some fantastic results. Jodar has lost to top 20 players on this surface this season and one of those was to World No. 1 Sinner. I still think Tien can push him, potentially even take a set here, but the Spaniard should still navigate to the quarterfinals.

Nur Said's Pick: Jodar in three sets