Brisbane Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk
12:00 AM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Jessica Pegula -136 / Marta Kostyuk +105
Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Preview
Jessica Pegula has reached the semifinals of the Brisbane International on her debut with a series of comeback wins. In her opening match, Pegula rallied from a break down twice in the deciding set to defeat Anna Kalinskaya 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 in an hour and 56 minutes. In the last 16, Pegula came from a set down to beat Dayana Yastremska 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 in two hours and 18 minutes.
Pegula’s quarterfinal win over Liudmila Samsonova was in straight sets, but the American trailed 2-4 in the second set, forcing a tiebreak, which she won 7-3. In the victory, Pegula hit 4 aces and 2 double faults. Pegula landed 68% of first serves in play and won 83% of first serve points (35/42). Pegula won 30% of second serve points (6/20) and saved three of five break points.
Marta Kostyuk will also contest her first semifinal in Brisbane. The Ukrainian had never gone beyond the second round of this tournament in the recent past. But she started the week with a comeback win against Kazakhstani lucky loser Yulia Putintseva. Kostyuk recovered from dropping the first set in a tiebreak to winning the next two sets 6-1, 6-0.
In the last 16, Kostyuk beat second seed Amanda Anisimova 6-4, 6-3 for a rare top 5 win. And the World No. 26 picked up her second top 10 win of the week by knocking out World No. 9 Mirra Andreeva 7-6, 6-3 in Friday’s quarterfinals. In the victory, Kostyuk landed 66% of first serves in play and won 67% of first serve points (33/49). She saved four of six break points.
Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Head-To-Head
Pegula owns a 4-1 head-to-head record over Marta Kostyuk. Their last meeting was at the 2025 China Open, where Pegula won in three sets.
Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction
I’m leaning toward Kostyuk in this one. She’s delivered statement wins in back-to-back matches. Given her poor record against top 10 players, Kostyuk has amassed two in a week and can make it three if she beats Pegula. Those victories have sharpened her belief, considering that for most of last season, she struggled against this caliber of opponents. Whatever she worked on in preseason is clearly paying off, and Pegula has been on the ropes at times this week, which makes Kostyuk good value for money.