Bastad Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong
July 20, 2025 at 08:00 AM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Luciano Darderi -151 / Jesper De Jong +124
Luciano Darderi and Jesper De Jong meet in the final of the 2025 Bastad Open. The match is scheduled for Sunday, July 20. Here’s our Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong prediction. This preview will also include a Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong pick.
Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong Preview
Luciano Darderi will compete in his third career final on the ATP Tour at the Bastad Open in Sweden. His previous two title matches also came on clay. Darderi won both, first in Cordoba last season, and this year’s Marrakech Open in Morocco. He will look to maintain his 100% record in Tour level finals in Bastad on Sunday.
Darderi’s route to the final this week started with a three-set win over Raphael Collignon. Then he stepped up in each of his next two rounds. First, he powered past home player Elias Ymer 6-2, 6-2 and then outclassed Sebastian Baez 6-0, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. Darderi’s most challenging opponent was Francisco Cerundolo, who was the top seed. The Italian prevailed in one of the most dramatic matches of the week. After exchanging the first two sets, Darderi lost his serve midway through the deciding set, but Cerundolo couldn’t consolidate and lost his serve at 4-4. Darderi then saved a crucial break point to hold for 6-5 and Cerundolo forced a tie-break in the next game. It was Darderi who dominated the breaker and won it 7-3. Darderi finished the match with 22 winners and 33 unforced errors. He accounted for five aces and one double fault. Darderi landed 58% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (41/56). He won 40% of second serve points (16/40) and saved nine of 14 break points. Darderi improves to 21-12 on clay this season.
Darderi will play a first-time finalist on the ATP Tour, Jesper De Jong. The Dutchman is a three-time champion on the Challenger level, but has never made a final at the Tour level. He certainly showed he belongs at this stage after a solid season. He will have a new career high ranking in the Top 100 regardless of the final outcome. De Jong reached this stage, dropping just one set all week. That was in the quarterfinal when he upstaged countryman Tallon Griekspoor, fighting from a set and a break down to win in three sets. In the semifinal, he took out Argentina’s Ugo Carabelli in straight sets, with De Jong overcoming a late wobble to prevail 6-3, 7-6. De Jong has an 18-13 record on clay this season.
Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong Head-To-Head
Darderi and De Jong have not met before this.
Luciano Darderi vs Jesper De Jong Prediction
This is a surprise final considering the talent pool in Bastad this week, but you’ve got to tip your hat to both men for making it to the final Sunday. This is too close to call, but I’m giving Darderi the edge. The Italian is the bigger and heavier ball striker and showed his clay-court depth in taking down two much-fancied favorites in Baez and Cerundolo. When that forehand clicks, Darderi can take the cover off the ball. And that’s why De Jong needs to mix it up and try to limit any patterns to attack Darderi’s forehand regularly. In the end, this one should be Darderi’s final to lose. He’s navigated the better competition, has the more effective weapons for the surface, and has already featured in two ATP finals (and won them). I’m going with the tried and tested.