Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Chengdu Prediction 9/23/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Top seed Lorenzo Musetti will face Chilean qualifier Alejandro Tabilo in the final of the 2025 Chengdu Open. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, September 23. Here’s our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo prediction. This preview will also include a Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo pick.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Preview

Lorenzo Musetti reached his second final of the season at the Chengdu Open. The top-seeded Italian beat Alexander Shevchenko in straight sets in the semifinal. Musetti secured a convincing win in just 65 minutes. He dropped only four games in the match. The first set was competitive, but once Musetti got the break to lead 4-2, he went on to close it out 6-3 without losing his serve. In the second set, Musetti broke Shevchenko three times, including to love to win the set 6-1.

Musetti finished the match with three aces and one double fault. He landed 65% of first serves in play and won 92% of first serve points (24/26). Musetti won 57% of second serve points (8/14) and did not face a single break point in the match. Musetti’s only final appearance this season was in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in three sets. His last ATP title win was in 2022.

Alejandro Tabilo came through qualifying to reach his first ATP final of the season in Chengdu. Tabilo shocked Brandon Nakashima in straight sets in Monday’s semifinal. The match took 23 games to decide and lasted an hour and 36 minutes. Tabilo won the first set 6-4 with just a solitary break of serve. The second set stayed on serve throughout, and it was Tabilo who dominated the tie-break, winning it 7-0. Tabilo has lost one set in the main draw.

This is his second final on Chinese soil this month, having reached the Guangzhou Challenger final in mid-September and lost to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. He is guaranteed to rejoin the world’s top 100 and could rise up to 72nd in the new rankings if he wins the title. Tabilo is a two-time champion on the ATP Tour. His last title win was in Mallorca last season.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Head-To-Head

Musetti and Tabilo haven’t played on the ATP level, but met once on the Challenger Tour. The Italian won a first-round match in Antalya in straight sets four years ago.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction

Musetti has been the man to beat in this tournament, and it is quite astounding that he hasn’t won an ATP title since 2022. That run is likely to end this week in Chengdu. He’s got a better ranking, shotmaking flair, and more big-match experience. If he plays to his level, which is precisely what he has done this week and all through the US Open until the quarters, he should win this. But Musetti can be shaky when you least expect it, and we’ve seen the Italian struggle with consistency and pressure in tight moments this season. If he gives Tabilo an inch, the Chilean can absolutely make him uncomfortable.