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Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe Miami Prediction 3/23/2026 Today’s Tennis Picks

Mar 10, 2026; Indian Wells, CA, USA;  Francis Tiafoe (USA) hits a shot during his fourth round match against Alexander Zverev (GER) in the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Mar 10, 2026; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Francis Tiafoe (USA) hits a shot during his fourth round match against Alexander Zverev (GER) in the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Miami Open Prediction: Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe

01:00 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Jakub Mensik -161 / Frances Tiafoe +128

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Defending champion Jakub Mensik faces Frances Tiafoe in the third round of the 2026 Miami Open on Monday, March 23. Here’s our Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe prediction. This preview will also include a Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe pick.

Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe Preview

Defending champion Jakub Mensik survived in his opening match at the 2026 Miami Open, where he recovered from losing the first set to prevail in three sets against Adam Walton. Australia’s Walton played a thoroughly absorbing first set where he broke Mensik’s serve twice to win 6-3.

But the Czech made a bright start to the second set, where he got an early break to take the lead. And he broke Walton towards the end to level the match at 1-set all. The deciding set featured just one break of serve. Mensik was responsible for converting his chance in the third game and consolidated to clinch victory in under two hours.

Mensik hammered 16 aces and 4 double faults in the victory. He landed 66% of first serves in play and won 82% of first serve points (45/55). Mensik won 46% of the second serve points (13/28) and saved seven of nine break points in the match. Mensik improves to 15-5 for the season.

Frances Tiafoe is coming off a straight-sets win over Arthur Cazaux that took 20 games to decide. Tiafoe won a competitive first set in a tiebreak, having saved two set points on his serve at 5-6 down. That clearly broke Cazaux’s spirit, and Tiafoe ran away with the second set 6-1 in 36 minutes. Tiafoe hit 5 aces in the victory. He landed 69% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (32/44). Tiafoe won 65% of second serve points (13/20) and saved four of five break points.

Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe Head-To-Head

Mensik and Tiafoe have previously met at the Davis Cup, where Mensik won their singles tie in straight sets last season.

Jakub Mensik vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

Mensik’s title defense faces its first serious test here. Tiafoe’s consistency has been spotty in the past year, but recent results have been very encouraging and he’s got a puncher’s chance of at least pushing Mensik. He brings the energy and feeds off the crowd’s support when he is playing on home soil. Backing him to win a set here should at least pay off, and I wouldn’t put it past him to cause an upset.

Nur Said's Pick: Tiafoe to win a set

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