Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Prediction 8/17/2025 Today’s Tennis Picks

Iga Swiatek will face Elena Rybakina in a mouthwatering semifinal at the 2025 Cincinnati Open. The match is scheduled for Sunday, August 17. Here’s our Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina prediction. This preview will also include an Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina pick.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Preview

Iga Swiatek reached the Cincinnati Open semifinals, having won just three matches in the last week and a half. Swiatek received a bye in the first round for being a seeded player, and then kicked off the tournament with a majestic 6-1, 6-4 win over Anastasia Potapova. The Pole received a late walkover when Marta Kostyuk withdrew with a wrist injury before their third-round match, earning her a berth in the second week.

Swiatek powered past Sorana Cirstea 6-4, 6-3 to make the last eight, where she defeated Russia’s Anna Kalinskaya and exacted her long-awaited revenge after losing to Kalinskaya in Dubai last season. The match lasted 90 minutes and took 19 games to decide. Swiatek hit two aces and three double faults in the victory. She landed 55% of first serves in play and won 83% of first serve points (24/29). Swiatek won 63% of second-serve points (15/24) and saved one of two break points. This is her third straight semifinal in Cincinnati, where she has never reached a final. Can she do so in 2025?

Elena Rybakina will prove to be a major hurdle if Swiatek is to reach her first final in Cincinnati. The Kazakh is coming off a statement win over World No. 1 and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka. Rybakina took the first set in under half an hour, losing just one game to the top seed. While the second set was tight, Rybakina was the only one to break, and did not lose any of her service games in a clinical 6-1, 6-4 victory.

Rybakina finished the match with 11 aces to one double fault. She landed 56% of first serves in play and won 81% of first serve points (29/36). Rybakina won 57% of second serve points (16/28) and saved all five break points she faced in the match. Rybakina atoned for her missed match points in Berlin, where she lost to Sabalenka in a final-set tiebreak. This is her first semifinal in Cincinnati after losing in the quarterfinals in 2022. Rybakina has now reached the semis in each of the three tournaments this swing.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Head-To-Head

Swiatek and Rybakina have met nine times. Swiatek leads 5-4, having won each of their three meetings this season, including on hard courts at the 2025 United Cup.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Prediction

I’m going with Rybakina again. Rybakina is one of the toughest competitors Swiatek has faced in her career. Before this year, Rybakina actually led their head-to-head and owned Swiatek on hard and clay courts. Swiatek’s turnaround has been exemplary, but it came at a time when Rybakina’s mental clarity was massively affected by coaching changes and niggling injuries. I think we are seeing a very different version of Rybakina this swing. She’s cleaned up that clunkiness and is trusting her shots. And we saw how she brutalized Sabalenka, leaving her powerless. Mentally, Rybakina is also showing much more toughness, and if she continues to execute her game plan with such precision, I fancy her to nick this.