Cincinnati Open Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
August 15, 2025 at 03:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -200 / Elena Rybakina +145
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face ninth seed Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Cincinnati Open. The match is scheduled for Friday, August 15. Here’s our Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina pick.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview
Aryna Sabalenka reached her fifth career quarterfinal in Cincinnati. The defending champion picked up her 51st WTA win of the season by defeating Spain’s Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in straight sets. The match took 19 games to decide and lasted an hour and 21 minutes. The first set was one sided with Sabalenka able to break Bouzas Maneiro’s serve three times and wrapped up the set in under half an hour.
In the second set, Sabalenka lost her early advantage to lose her service game in the eighth game, but Bouzas Maneiro lost her serve again at 5-all. Sabalenka duly served for the match to win 6-1, 7-5. The World No. 1 finished with four aces and one double fault. She landed 52% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (27/37). Sabalenka won 50% of second serve points (17/34) and saved four of six break points. Sabalenka has reached the semifinal in each of her last three tournaments, with her only quarterfinal defeat coming in Rome.
Elena Rybakina settled the heavyweight clash against Australian Open champion Madison Keys in a three-setter to reach her second career quarterfinal at the Cincinnati Open. Rybakina led 4-2 in the opening set, but gave back the break and she would lose the set in a tie-break 7-3 after nearly an hour. Rybakina’s response was excellent, coming back to break Keys towards the end of the second set and holding to love for 6-4.
In the decider, Keys’ game fell apart under the weight of pressure from Rybakina’s clean hitting. The Kazakh recovered from a poor start to the set and broke Keys three times to round off a 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 victory in two hours and 26 minutes. Rybakina hit six aces and two double faults. She landed 52% of first serves in play and won 71% of first serve points (35/49). Rybakina won 60% of second serve points (27/45) and saved six of nine break points.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-To-Head
Sabalenka and Rybakina have played 11 times. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 7-4 and saved four match points in their epic encounter on the Berlin grass in late June. Their last hard-court meeting was won by Rybakina at the 2024 WTA Finals.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction
I’m backing Rybakina in this one. If we’re being honest here, Rybakina’s season could have turned differently had she been clinical enough or held her nerve to close out some of her matches. And a couple of those this swing were very much on her racket. She ought to have won more tournaments. That’s tennis though, a sport of very fine margins, but I rate Rybakina as one of the few players who can go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka in a heavy-hitting contest and succeed. She’s beaten her four times already and had match points in their last encounter in Berlin. And let’s not forget, Rybakina is coming off a massive win over big-hitting Madison Keys in the last round. If she keeps those nerves in check and lands that first serve consistently in the right spots, we might be looking at another Rybakina victory.