Miami Open Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
08:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -120 / Elena Rybakina +107
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview
Aryna Sabalenka overcame a determined Hailey Baptiste to reach the Miami Open semifinals and keep her title defense alive. Baptiste had beaten some serious competitors earlier in the tournament, but her giant-killing run came to a halt in the quarterfinals against the World No. 1, who earned two timely breaks of serve in either set to win the match 6-4, 6-4 in 80 minutes.In the victory, Sabalenka tallied 4 aces and 3 double faults. She landed 66% of first serves in play and won 79% of first serve points (30/38). Sabalenka won 50% of second serve points (10/20) and saved one of three break points she faced on her serve. Sabalenka is now 21-1 this season, with her only loss coming against Rybakina at the Australian Open. She remains on course to win the Sunshine Double after beating Rybakina in the Indian Wells final over a week ago.
Earlier in the day, Elena Rybakina punched her ticket into the semifinals with a fourth straight win over Jessica Pegula. After a slow start to the match in which she was broken twice, Rybakina managed to regain her focus and level to beat the in-form Pegula in three sets. The match took 27 games to decide and lasted two hours and 16 minutes.
In the victory, Rybakina hammered 15 aces and 4 double faults. Rybakina landed 62% of first serves in play and won 67% of first serve points (46/69). She won 51% of second serve points (22/43) and saved eight of 10 break points on her serve. Rybakina improves to 21-4 this season and has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches. The only defeat at that time was to Sabalenka in Indian Wells.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-To-Head
Sabalenka leads Rybakina 9-7 in the head-to-head. Sabalenka defeated Rybakina from match point in the 2026 Indian Wells final less than two weeks ago. They are tied at 1-1 in 2026. Rybakina beat Sabalenka to win the Australian Open in January.Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction
This is the most interesting rivalry in women’s tennis right now, and rightfully so, these two women are both ranked in the top two. And I think based on their close rivalry and matches, and what we saw in both encounters this season, this is a difficult one to call. Rybakina had one hand on the title in Indian Wells before Sabalenka pulled off that sensational backhand winner to save it and then go on to snatch the trophy. So it is fine margins we are talking about. That said, Sabalenka’s serve and backhand stability can be trusted, at least this swing, and I reckon she will do enough to win this.