Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction 4/9/25 Monte Carlo Tennis Picks

The World No. 3 has posted a 15-4 record for the season. And for the first time in four years, did not win a tournament during the Sunshine Swing. His two-year reign in Indian Wells came to a half in the semis against Jack Draper and was surprisingly below par in a shock defeat to David Goffin in Miami.

Alcaraz did not have an ideal preparation for last year's Roland Garros because of the forearm injury, but still won the clay court Grand Slam. He is the second seed this week and received a bye in the first round.

Francisco Cerundolo Preview

Francisco Cerundolo already won a match in the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters. He defeated 2019 champion and wild card entrant Fabio Fognini in straight sets on Monday. The match took 15 games to decide. Cerundolo prevailed 6-0, 6-3 in just 63 minutes. In the victory, Cerundolo hit 10 winners and 18 unforced errors. He accounted for four aces.

Cerundolo landed 73% of first serves in play and won 81% of first serve points (22/27). The Argentine won 80% of second serve points (8/10) and saved both breakpoints he faced. Cerundolo won 53% of return points (31/59) and broke Fognini five times. He progressed to the second round for the third year in a row but has not gone further than that in the last two editions.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz and Cerundolo have met twice on the ATP level.

• Alcaraz leads Cerundolo 2-0 in the head-to-head.

• This will be their first clay-court meeting.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Alcaraz starts as the favorite at -400 and you can't dispute that. The only concern is how quickly he's able to adjust to the slow-playing clay court in Monte Carlo. Because he didn't play on clay in Latin America, his last match on the surface was at last year's Olympics. That said, I don't expect Alcaraz to encounter too many roadblocks in this match. He matches up so well with Cerundolo who can often struggle to impose himself against players with so much pace in their shots.