Frances Tiafoe vs Jenson Brooksby Prediction 4/6/25 Houston Tennis Picks

Tiafoe landed 60% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serves (25/36). The second seeded Tiafoe won 54% of second serve points (13/24) and saved one of five breakpoints. Tiafoe won 48% of return points (39/81) and broke Nakashima five times. Tiafoe won in Houston in 2023 but lost to Ben Shelton in last year's final. And for the second successive year, it will be an all-American final.

Jenson Brooksby Preview

Jenson Brooksby reached the fourth ATP final of his career after the unlikeliest of wins over top seed Tommy Paul. For the third time in the tournament, Brooksby staved a match point to stay alive and escaped with 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 win over Paul in the semifinal. It's his first final in three years.

In the victory, Brooksby landed 71% of first serves and won 71% of first serve points (29/41). Brooksby won 53% of second serve points (9/17) and saved six of seven breakpoints. The qualifier won 30% of return points (16/54) and broke Paul once in the match. Brooksby improves to 9-6 for the season. As the world No. 507, Brooksby is now the lowest-ranked American to headline an ATP final on clay since the ATP Tour came into being in 1990. Brooksby lost in all three of his previous ATP Tour finals but is a three-time champion on the Challenger level.

Frances Tiafoe vs Jenson Brooksby Head-To-Head

• Tiafoe and Brooksby have met twice on the ATP Tour.

• Brooksby leads Tiafoe 2-0, having won both meetings on hard courts.

• This will be their first match on clay.

Frances Tiafoe vs Jenson Brooksby Prediction

It almost feels cruel to pick against Jenson Brooksby for this final. He's saved at least one match point in three matches this week. He's got a 2-0 H2H record against Tiafoe and just reached his first final (from qualifying) within three months of his return from two wrist surgeries and a doping offense suspension. Surely, Brooksby's name is now etched on that trophy, but the bookies are still not buying it and instilled him as the underdog at +150, which is somewhat incredible.