Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction 4/5/25 Charleston Tennis Picks

Pegula is the in-form player in the tournament. She is coming off two final appearances from her last three tournaments on U.S. soil, one in Austin, where she won the ATX Open title, and the other in Miami a week ago, where she lost to world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. Overall, she's made three finals, with the other one being Adelaide at the start of the season when she lost to Madison Keys.

Pegula has also accounted for wins over Iryna Shymanovich and Ajla Tomljanovic, dropping a combined eight games against the pair. She will be looking to reach her first final in Charleston.

Ekaterina Alexandrova Preview

Ekaterina Alexandrova stays hot in Charleston after knocking off third seed Qinwen Zheng in straight sets in the second quarterfinal on Friday. Alexandrova registered a 6-1, 6-4 win against the Olympic gold medalist to reach her second career semifinal in Charleston. She hit two aces and won 79% of first serve points. Alexandrova saved all three breakpoints on her serve in the match.

Before this match, Alexandrova had started her week with a clinical 6-3, 6-0 win over Ann Li and then outclassed countrywoman Diana Shnaider 6-2, 6-1. She has not dropped a set in the tournament. The Russian improves to 12-7 for the season. Since beating Pegula in Doha in mid-February, Alexandrova lost her next four matches before turning the tide in Charleston. She has reached one final this season in Linz, where she took home the title.

Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Head-To-Head

• Pegula and Alexandrova have met three times at the WTA level.

• Pegula won their first meeting on clay in Rome four years ago, but Alexandrova has taken their last two meetings to lead the head-to-head 2-1. The Russian won their last match in Doha in February in three sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction

When Alexandrova is this hot, she is uncontrollable, and Pegula felt the full force of the Russian's firepower when they met in Doha a couple of months ago. The odds are leaning heavily on Pegula, and I'm not convinced this will be an easy matchup for her. There is a reason why Alexandrova has done well on the green clay of Charleston, which plays faster than the traditional red clay in Europe. Back Alexandrova to win at least a set here if you are avoiding the Pegula ML.