WTA Miami Final Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
Saturday, March 29, 2025
Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka -333 / Jessica Pegula +250 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: WTA TV
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula clash in the final of the 2025 WTA Miami Open on Saturday, March 29, 2025. Here's our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction. This preview will also include an Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula pick.
Aryna Sabalenka Preview
Aryna Sabalenka defeated sixth seed Jasmine Paolini in straight sets to reach her first Miami Open final. The match took 16 games to decide, with Sabalenka toppling Paolini 6-2, 6-2 in 73 minutes. In the victory, Sabalenka hit 36 winners and 12 unforced errors, including six aces and two double faults. Sabalenka landed 78% of first serves in play and won 78% of first serve points (31/40). The top seed won 45% of second serve points (5/11) and saved all four breakpoints she faced. Sabalenka was a menace on return, winning 51% of points (30/59) and breaking Paolini's serve four times.
This was the World No. 1's 22nd win from 26 matches this season. It will be her fourth final in 2025, the most by any WTA player. She was a champion in Brisbane but lost her last two finals to Madison Keys at the Australian Open and Mirra Andreeva in Indian Wells.
Jessica Pegula Preview
Like Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula also reached her first final in Miami. The New York native's record in Florida was simply too good for her not to headline a title match, with two semifinals and one quarterfinal finish in the past. And the draw certainly opened up for Pegula, who needed to beat the Cinderella story of this year's tournament in Alexandra Eala. But the American had to dig deep for the win against the Filipina wild card, who upset Keys and Iga Swiatek to reach an unexpected semifinal. Pegula won 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 in almost two and a half hours.
In the victory, Pegula hit 38 winners and 46 unforced errors. That included six aces and two double faults. Pegula landed 66% of first serves in play and won 73% of first serve points (51/70). The fourth seed won 42% of second serve points (15/36) and saved seven of 12 breakpoints. Pegula compiled 43% of return points (44/102) and converted five of seven break points.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-To-Head
• Sabalenka and Pegula have met eight times at the WTA level.
• Sabalenka leads Pegula 6-2 in the head-to-head.
• Sabalenka has defeated Pegula in each of their last two matches (in the finals of Cincinnati and the US Open) in straight sets.
• Pegula's most recent win over Sabalenka was at the 2023 WTA Finals in Cancun, Mexico.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Sabalenka and Pegula are two players who know each other very well, having played eight times since 2020. But as much as Sabalenka has been the woman to beat in 2025, she can beat herself if her last two finals are anything to go by. Her run to the Miami final has been immaculate, with no sets dropped so far. However, she can be sloppy and has thrown away leads in high-stakes matches very recently. It could be the slightest bit of hope for Pegula, who will desperately want to round off her spring hard-court swing with a second title, and she's got a reasonable chance at a whopping +250 pre-match odds.
Nur’s Pick Jessica Pegula in three sets
AUTHOR: Nur Said
