Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction 3/27/25 Miami Tennis Picks

Sabalenka, who had stumbled in two previous quarterfinals in Miami, made sure of her progress against the Chinese player, who is yet to taste victory against her.

The match took 20 games to decide. Sabalenka prevailed 6-2, 7-5 in an hour and 37 minutes. In the victory, Sabalenka hit 21 winners and 23 unforced errors. She accounted for one ace in the whole match. Sabalenka landed 68% of first serves in play and won 53% of first serve points (21/40).

The top seed won 63% of second serve points (12/19) and saved seven of 11 breakpoints. Sabalenka compiled 61% of return points (40/66) and broke Zheng seven times in the match. The Belarusian has now won nine of her last 10 matches. She has 21 wins overall and only four defeats. Sabalenka can reach her first Miami final.

Jasmine Paolini Preview

Jasmine Paolini is coming off a straight sets over Poland's Magda Linette in the other quarterfinal. The match took 17 games to decide and lasted an hour and 18 minutes.

Paolini prevailed 6-3, 6-2 to reach her first Miami Open semifinal. She had never advanced beyond the third round in this WTA 1000 tournament in three previous tries. In the victory, Paolini hit 20 winners and 20 unforced errors. That tally included two aces and two double faults.

Paolini landed 66% of first serves in play and won 65% of first serve points (32/49). The Italian sixth seed of 52% of second serve points (13/25) and saved seven of eight break points. Paolini tallied 47% of return points (21/45) and broke Linette four times in the match.

This was Paolini's 12th win from 17 matches this season, and it will be her first semifinal of 2025 - a much-needed return to form after her recent injury.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka and Paolini have met four times on the WTA level.

• Sabalenka leads Paolini 3-1 in their head-to-head.

• Sabalenka has beaten Paolini in straight sets in each of their last two meetings on hard courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction

It's been a wild tournament with some crazy results, and it's a minor miracle we still have a couple of Top 10 seeds facing off in a semifinal. That said, we will have a new champion at this year's Miami Open. Sabalenka is the overwhelming favorite to reach her first final in Florida and opens as a -714 to win this match. While we agree she should be victorious, it won't be as comfortable as the odds suggest. Her first serve still needs polishing up, and Paolini's sharp, incisive returns could easily cover the value games spread here.