Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction 3/22/25 Miami Tennis Picks

Fritz will compete in Miami for the ninth time. He's reached the quarterfinals once in the past. Last year, he got knocked out in the second round in a shock loss to Thiago Seyboth Wild. 

Fritz has previously triumphed in the first leg of the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells, beating Rafael Nadal in his home state of California. He can complete the spring hard-court set and join an exclusive club of players to win the two ATP Masters 1000 events in March by winning his first title in Miami.

For context, half of Fritz's eight Tour-level titles have been won on U.S. soil.

Lorenzo Sonego Preview

Lorenzo Sonego is unseeded and had to win his first-round match in Miami. The Italian defeated Argentina's Mariano Navone in two tight sets. Thematch took 24 games to decide and lasted two hours and 11 minutes. Sonego prevailed 7-5, 7-5.

In the victory, Sonego hit 23 winners and 40 unforced errors. That tally included two aces and five double faults. Sonego landed 56% of first serves in play and won 88% of first serve points (35/40). He won 55% of second serve points (18/33) and saved three of four break points. Sonego compiled 38% of return points (30/78) and broke Navone three times in the match.

Sonego improves to 8-7 for the season. He has reached the round of 16 in this tournament twice in the past, but has also lost at this stage twice.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego Head-To-Head

• Fritz and Sonego have met seven times on the ATP level.

• Fritz leads Sonego 5-2 in their head-to-head.

• Fritz has won three hard-court meetings against Sonego including their last match at the 2023 Cincinnati Open.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Although Fritz is the favorite here and he should be winning, we disagree with the line. The third seed opens as a -625 on the money line. Fritz has dropped an average of 11 games from his last six matches. Of relevance, he's lost three of those matches, including this past week in Indian Wells to Jack Draper. I'm looking at a potential three-setter with Sonego ultimately covering the total games spread.