Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction 3/16/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Sabalenka landed 70% of first serves in play and won 71% of first serve points (20/28). The top seed won 75% of second serve points (9/12) and only faced one break point she saved. Sabalenka compiled 60% of return points (24/40) and converted five of six break points in the match.

It's Sabalenka's second final in Indian Wells (lost in 2023 to Rybakina). This is her third final of the 2025 season (won in Brisbane but lost the AO final). Sabalenka has won 17 of 20 matches this season and has not dropped a set during the two weeks at the BNP Paribas Open.

Mirra Andreeva Preview

Mirra Andreeva defeated defending champion Iga Swiatek for the second time in as many weeks to reach her first Indian Wells final. The match took 29 games to decide and lasted two hours and 18 minutes. Andreeva prevailed 7-6, 1-6, 6-3 for her 11th straight win on Tour. In the victory, Andreeva hit 32 winners and 21 unforced errors including five aces and four double faults.

Andreeva landed 54% of first serves and won 65% of first serve points (32/49). The ninth seed won 44% of second serve points (18/41) and saved one of six break points. Andreeva compiled 39% of return points (33/84) and broke Swiatek four times.

Andreeva can win her third career title and second at WTA 1000 level

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka and Andreeva have met five times on the WTA level.

• Sabalenka leads Andreeva 4-1 in the head-to-head with two victories already this season on Australian soil.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction

I'm going Sabalenka in three. Straight sets is probably the likeliest outcome, but Andreeva's no-holds-barred approach and fearless attitude might give her the belief to make this competitive. Her two defeats to Sabalenka this season have been extremely one-sided. But she's improved rapidly in the two months after the Australian Open and is on an 11-match winning run.

That said, I have to pick Sabalenka here. The Belarusian has had Andreeva's number in this rivalry and it's almost as if the young Russian despises this matchup. Sabalenka doesn't give her any space and time to dictate points. When the top seed ramps up the pace and intensity, few players can live with her.