Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic Prediction 3/13/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

In the victory, Keys hammered 46 winners and 28 unforced errors. That tally included seven aces and four double faults. Keys landed 66% of first serves in play and won 68% of first serve points (41/60). The Australian Open champion won 58% of second serve points (18/31) and saved two of five break points. Keys tallied 41% of return points (45/110) and broke Vekic four times in the match.

Keys remains unbeaten in her last 15 matches and is 17-1 in 2025 (her only defeat came in the opening week in Auckland to Clara Tauson). This is her second quarterfinal in Indian Wells from 12 visits.

Belinda Bencic Preview

Belinda Bencic got her revenge over third seed Coco Gauff. She also needed three sets to reach the Indian Wells quarterfinal. The match took 28 games to decide and lasted over two hours. Bencic prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. In the victory, Bencic compiled 21 winners and 27 unforced errors. She didn't hit any aces but accounted for three double faults.

Bencic landed 73% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (45/65). Bencic won 50% of second serve points (12/24) and faced two break points (broken twice). The Swiss wild card won 36% of return points (31/87) and broke Gauff three times.

This was Bencic's 17th win of the season. She has lost four matches. It is the first time she has reached the Indian Wells semifinals since 2019.

Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic Head-To-Head

• Keys and Bencic have played four times on Tour.

• The head-to-head is tied at 2-2, but Keys won their only hard-court meeting at the 2021 Qatar Open in Doha.

• They haven't played since 2022. Bencic won their last match at the 2022 Charleston Open on clay in straight sets.

Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic Prediction

Keys currently has the longest win streak on Tour in 2025, but Bencic is in exceptional form herself, with 17 match wins (the same number as the American) and a title to her name. If there is one player in the draw capable of disrupting the Keys party, it is Bencic. She out-gritted Gauff in three sets, which says something about her stamina and how quickly she regained her sharpness on the court.

I like the Swiss wild card here. Keys has the raw power to win the majority of the baseline exchanges, but Bencic won't be intimidated especially with her return being top-tier. So, she will absorb that power and redirect the balls back with precision. Extending points gives her the best chance to get under Keys' skin and we know the American doesn't enjoy playing longer rallies because the consistency of her groundstrokes wanes.