Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal Prediction 3/12/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Sabalenka landed 60% of first serves in play and won 75% of first serve points (21/28). The World No. 1 won 53% of second serve points (10/19) and saved two of three break points on her serve.

Sabalenka tallied 57% of return points (33/58) and converted five of 12 break points in the match. It is the first time since the Australian Open in January that Sabalenka has recorded back-to-back wins on Tour. The Belarusian earned her 14th win from 17 matches. She will seek to reach the quarterfinals in Indian Wells for only the second time.

Sonay Kartal Preview

Sonay Kartal broke new ground by reaching her first WTA 1000 fourth round in Indian Wells. The British lucky loser is yet to drop a set in the main draw, earning wins over Varvara Lepchenko and Brazil's World No. 17 Beatriz Haddad Maia.

In the third round, Kartal defeated Russia's Polina Kudermetova 7-5, 6-3 in 85 minutes. In the victory, Kartal hit 18 winners and 12 unforced errors, including one ace. She landed 66% of first serves in play and won 55% of first serve points (27/49).

Kartal won 80% of second serve points (20/25) and saved two of four break points. The World No. 83 compiled 44% of return points (28/63) and broke Kudermetova four times in the match.

Kartal is the lowest-ranked player left in the women's draw this week. All of her three main draw wins this season came in the first week of Indian Wells.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka and Kartal have never played before this.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal Prediction

It's a big moment for Sonay Kartal who was called in to replace the injured Sloane Stephens as a lucky loser on the eve of the main draw start. The chance was more of hope than expectation and Kartal has grabbed it with both hands, impressing with three straight wins, including the elimination of 16th seed Haddad Maia. She's guaranteed herself a new career-high ranking after the tournament (top 70 debut). But, she is unlikely to pose much of a challenge here. Sabalenka brings a whole new dimension of physicality that Kartal will struggle to match. I'm sure Kartal would be pleased with how the fortnight panned out after her qualifying defeat, so anything she gets out of this would only serve as a learning point.