Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Prediction 3/8/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Her best result remains a runner-up finish in 2023 when she lost to Elena Rybakina in the final. Last year, she saved match points in her opening match against Peyton Stearns en route to the round of 16 where she lost to Emma Navarro.

Sabalenka has compiled a 13-3 record this season. She was a champion in Brisbane in the opening week of the season but lost to Madison Keys in the year's first Grand Slam at the Australian Open. 

The Belarusian won one match in two tournaments in the Middle East. 

McCartney Kessler Preview

McCartney Kessler routinely won her first-round match against Anna Blinkova. The American recorded an emphatic 6-1, 6-2 victory for her first-ever main draw success in Indian Wells.

In the victory, Kessler hit 21 winners and 15 unforced errors. She landed 55% of first serves and won 75% of first serve points (18/24). Kessler won 55% of second serve points (11/20) and saved two of three break points on her serve.

On the return, Kessler won 64% of points (28/44) and broke Blinkova six times. Kessler improves to 15-6 for the year. She will be chasing her second Top 3 win of her career (defeated Coco Gauff in Dubai).

Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka and Kessler have never met at the WTA level. This will be their first meeting.

Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler Prediction

The Kessler set handicap is seriously worth considering here. Sabalenka has had her fair share of shock defeats in Indian Wells, with Paolini in 2022 and more recently last year Emma Navarro springing to mind. She was a big favorite in both matches and we shouldn't forget she could've lost in the second round to Peyton Stearns who had match points on her own serve.

Kessler is flying right now, coming off a runner-up finish in Austin and thrashing Anna Blinkova in her opener in Indian Wells 6-1, 6-2. While the winds tend to calm down a bit for the night session, the new surface could prove problematic for Sabalenka to deal with the awkward bounces and varying pace.