Joao Fonseca vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction 3/6/25 Indian Wells Tennis Picks

Having nurtured his talent in the U.S., Fonseca has risen through the ranks at an impressive rate, joining the world's Top 100 this season thanks to a title win at the Canberra Challenger and successfully qualifying for his Grand Slam main draw at the Australian Open.

Fonseca started the season with eight straight wins, including a top-10 victory over Andrey Rublev in Melbourne. Ultimately, his unbeaten start to the season came to an end at the hands of Lorenzo Sonego in the second round of the Australian Open.

Fonseca's next stop on the ATP Tour was in the Golden Swing where he clinched his first Tour-level title in Buenos Aires after saving match points in the quarterfinal. That success took a lot out of his energy tank and was completely gassed in the Rio Open in his home country where he fell to a shock first-round defeat to Alexandre Muller.

Jacob Fearnley Preview

Jacob Fearnley is another young player making his mark on Tour this season although his surge is not as explosive as that of Fonseca. Still, the 23-year-old who hails from Scotland in the UK, has quickly broken into the top 100.

Fearnley is coming off a very successful season on the ATP Challenger in which he lifted four titles at that level and impressed on his Wimbledon main draw debut last summer, taking a set off Novak Djokovic. 

This season, Fearnley started the year competing at the Canberra Challenger, reaching the semis there and losing to Fonseca. His next stop was the Australian Open, where he scored an eye-catching straight-sets win against former top 20 player Nick Kyrgios en route to the third round.

Fearnley last competed at the Pau Challenge toward the end of February. He made it to the last eight and lost Lucas Klein. This will be his first appearance in Indian Wells.

Joao Fonseca vs Jacob Fearnley Head-To-Head

• Fonseca and Fearnley have never met on the ATP Tour but played once on the Challenger level.

• Fonseca beat Fearnley en route to the title at the 2025 Canberra Challenger in January.

Joao Fonseca vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

This could potentially materialize into a regular rivalry on tour provided they can continue their ascent in the rankings. But at this early stage, the 18-year-old Joao Fonseca gets my vote here. Fearnley is a big talent no doubt. He's got the ability to turn up the temperature from the back of the court with his clean hitting and decent rally tolerance. He's also not afraid to go for his shots, whether it's a big second serve or risk it for a winner from any part of the court.

I still think Fonseca's game is just more polished. The last thing Fearnley wants to do here is to play on the defense, because he's restricted, something he didn't do too well in Canberra when Fonseca won their lone meeting in straight sets. That's what I expect here - Fonseca dictating and Fearnley defending and that only results in one outcome.