Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Prediction 2/23/25 Rio Tennis Picks

Muller then went on a giant-killing spree. He defeated Argentina's Tomas Martinz Etcheverry and last week's finalist in Buenos Aires Francisco Cerundolo to reach the semis.

In the semifinal, Muller ousted Alexander Zverev's conqueror Francisco Comesana to preserve his 100% winning record in the last four matches at the Tour level (3-0).

Muller prevailed 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 in almost three hours to become the first French player to make it to the Rio Open final. In the victory, he landed 60% of first serves and won 68% of first serve points (43/63).

Muller won 43% of second serve points (18/42) and saved five of 10 break points in the match.

Muller lost his first ATP final on clay in Marrakech in 2023 but lifted his maiden title on his second try in Hong Kong earlier this year.

This is Muller's third career final.

Sebastian Baez Preview

Defending champion Sebastian Baez has doubled his match-win tally for the season at the Rio Open. The Argentinian started the week by beating Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-3, 7-5.

Baez was taken the distance by countryman Mariano Navone in the second round but prevailed 6-4, 1-6, 6-3. In the quarterfinal, he lost only five games to Chun Hsin Tseng to set up a last-four meeting against lucky loser Ugo Carabelli.

After losing the first set 6-3, Baez won 12 of the next 14 games to turn the match on its head. In the victory, Baez hit seven aces and landed 75% of first serves.

He won 63% of first serve points (31/49) and 69% of second serve points (11/16). The World No. 31 saved three of five break points.

Baez will attempt to become the first player to win the Rio Open title twice. Five of his six career titles are on clay.

Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Head-To-Head

• Muller and Baez have no history at this level. This will be their first meeting.

Alexandre Muller vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

It would be the cherry on top if Muller can somehow pull this off and I'm backing him to do that. This week has been nothing short of magical for the Frenchman who defeated the highly talented Joao Fonseca in a hostile atmosphere and then two top 50 players. However, Baez is a formidable matchup, and the Argentinian will have the advantage of fresher legs for this final. Muller's court time in his semifinal was precisely three hours.

But I would never doubt his endurance and physical abilities after his historic run to the title in Hong King (he won all five matches in three sets). So, he can handle tough situations and if he continues to employ his varied shot selection and strong serving, I smell an upset. Give me Muller at plus money.