Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction 2/13/25 Doha Tennis Picks

In the victory, Pegula landed 59% of first serves in play and won 59% of first serve points (27/46). She won 63% of second serve points (20/32) and saved six of eight break points on her serve.

Pegula won 46% of return points (34/74) and broke Kasatkina five times in the match. It is the third time in her career she's reached at least the quarterfinals in Doha. The previous two times she did so, she won.

Ekaterina Alexandrova Preview

Ekaterina Alexandrova backed up her stunning win over World No.1  Aryna Sabalenka by knocking out Belgium's Elise Mertens in straight sets.

The match took 18 games to decide and lasted an hour and 12 minutes. In the victory, Alexandrova hit three aces and one double fault.

Alexandrova landed 53% of first serves in play and won 71% of first serve points (17/24). She won 71% of second serve points too (15/21) and only faced one break point on her serve.

The Russian won 45% of return points (23/51) and converted four of five break points. This is officially Alexandrova's best run in Doha having previously only achieved a last-16 finish.

Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Head-To-Head

• Pegula and Alexandrova have met twice on the WTA level.

• The head-to-head is tied at 1-1, with Alexandrova winning their sole hard-court meeting at the 2024 Miami Open in three sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Betting Odds & Match Facts

• Pegula starts as the favorite at -178. In-form Alexandrova is the underdog at +156.

• The over 2.5 sets in the match is valued at +120 while the over 21.5 games is a tempting -125.

Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction

This is too close to call, but I'm riding on the Alexandrova plus money here. She's hit a purple patch recently and enters this match with seven straight wins (bagged the WTA 500 title in Linz). One of her victims in Doha was the top seed Aryna Sabalenka - the kind of result that'll have Alexandrova believing she can beat anybody.

Pegula has actually played very well this week despite fears of rustiness in her game after taking an elongated time off after the Australian Open. Players like Alexandrova don't complicate their tennis, it's always about execution and she can be streaky when she is not missing. That hyper-aggressive first-strike tennis is needed to tear down the most disciplined of defenses like that of Pegula who has been rock solid this tournament. But if Alexandrova stays hot on serve and placement, I believe she'll win.