Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction 1/25/25 Australian Open Tennis Picks

Australian Open Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys

Game Date: Saturday, January 25, 2025

Betting Odds: Aryna Sabalenka / Madison Keys (to be updated) Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN

Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys meet in the final of the 2025 Australian Open on Saturday, January 25, 2025. Here's our Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys prediction. This preview also includes an Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys pick.

 

Aryna Sabalenka Preview

 

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Paula Badosa to reach her third successive final in Melbourne. Sabalenka ousted her good friend Badosa in straight sets in a match that took 18 games to decide.

The match lasted an hour and 27 minutes. In the victory, Sabalenka hit 32 winners and 21 unforced errors. That included two aces and one double fault.

Sabalenka landed 63% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (24/31). 

Sabalenka won 61% of second serve points (11/18) and only dropped her serve once.

The Belarusian won 46% of return points (33/72) and 80% of net points (8/10). She converted four of nine break points in the match.

Sabalenka is the two-time defending champion of the Australian Open and last lost here in 2022 to Kaia Kanepi.

 

Madison Keys Preview

 

Madison Keys reached her first Australian Open final courtesy of a shock win over second seed Iga Swiatek. Keys saved a match point en route to a 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 victory that took two hours and 37 minutes of playing time.

In the victory, Keys hit 36 winners and 41 unforced errors. That included seven aces and four double faults. Keys landed 69% of first serves and won 64% of first serve points (47/73).

She won 33% of second serve points (11/33) and saved 10 of 16 break points. Keys won 50% of return points (53/105) and 68% of net points (13/19). She broke Swiatek eight times in the match.

The American saved a match point on the Swiatek serve at 5-6 down in the third set and came back from 5-7 down the 10-point tie-break to win the match.

 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

 

• Sabalenka and Keys have met five times on the WTA Tour.

• Sabalenka leads Keys 4-1 in the head-to-head.

• Sabalenka leads 3-0 on hard courts and won their last meeting at the 2024 China Open in straight sets.

 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction

 

Sabalenka's presence in the final Saturday was perhaps never in doubt. She was the outright favorite with the oddsmakers to win the crown even before a ball was struck. Keys, however, had to go through two top six seeds including World No. 2 Iga Swiatek. But she's defied the odds, saving a match point in the semifinal. This will be the American's second Grand Slam final and one which she will relish after a runner-up finish at the 2017 US Open.

Sabalenka and Keys are not too dissimilar in their playing style, regularly preferring power and pace to suffocate their opponents. But Sabalenka is the better server, more powerful off both wings, and uses the full width of the court. It is pertinent to note that her serve has been far from perfect during this year's tournament. A recent graphic by analysts suggests she's got a slightly higher ball toss compared to 12 months ago. It hasn't been so detrimental, but it's giving away openings. Players like Keys can capitalize on their ability to take the ball early. The tournament has delivered an unexpected final, but it should live up to expectations. Sabalenka though looks poised to lift her fourth major.

Nur’s Pick Aryna Sabalenka in three sets

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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