Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction 1/21/25 Australian Open Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz has only dropped one set to reach the Australian Open quarterfinal for the second successive year.

Alcaraz did not play any warm-up tournament in January before Melbourne. That meant his first official match of 2025 was the first-round win over Alexander Shevchenko.

In the second round, he demolished Japan's Yoshihito Nishioka 6-0, 6-1, 6-4.

In the third round, he lost a set to Nuno Borges of Portugal, but serenely progressed 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-2.

In the fourth round, Alcaraz earned a retirement win over Jack Draper who sadly had to retire while trailing by two sets.

Novak Djokovic Preview

Novak Djokovic's quest for a 25th Grand Slam title began with a nervy four-set win over American wild card Nishesh Basavareddy.

Djokovic lost another set in the second round to Portuguese youngster Jaime Faria but got the job done in four again.

In the third round, he was tipped to struggle against Tomas Machac, but made light work of the injury-riddled Czech in straight sets.

In the fourth round, Djokovic saw off Jiri Lehecka 6-3, 6-4, 7-6. He improves to 6-1 for the season with his only loss coming to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz and Djokovic have played seven times in official matches.

• Djokovic leads his younger rival 4-3.

• Djokovic beat Alcaraz in their most recent meeting at the 2024 Paris Olympics Final on clay.

• Alcaraz leads 2-1 in Grand Slam matches, beating Djokovic in back-to-back Wimbledon finals.

• Djokovic leads 2-0 on hard courts (won in Turin and Cincinnati).

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction

Despite the near two-decade age gap, Alcaraz-Djokovic is one of the most compelling rivalries of the new era. Almost every match between them has lived up to the hype. This one can still follow suit. Djokovic is the most successful player in Australian Open history with 10 titles and I don't really need to state the obvious of what he has accomplished in the continent. He's always been the man to beat for the last 15 years. And even 12 months ago, when he wasn't favored to win the title here, he lost to the eventual champion Sinner in the semis.

We're in for an absolute blockbuster. Djokovic is +175 with some oddsmakers to win on money line, a clear indication that victory may be out of his reach. But it's not the first time, he's been such a massive underdog in this matchup. He beat Alcaraz to win gold at the Olympics last year as a +200 underdog. Still, it doesn't change the bare fact that he's no longer the physical specimen that rarely faltered in high-stakes matches. Alcaraz is the superior player at this moment in their careers. He's one of few players who can take the racket out of Djokovic's hand with his ability to step in and dictate rallies frequently. His sharper movement and unrelenting aggression will likely be insurmountable. Give me Alcaraz for the win and a spot in the Australian Open semifinal.