Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul Prediction 1/21/25 Australian Open Tennis Picks

Australian Open Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Betting Odds: Alexander Zverev -294 / Tommy Paul +230 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN

Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Australian Open on Tuesday, January 21, 2025. Here's our Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul prediction. This preview also includes an Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul pick.

 

Alexander Zverev Preview

 

Alexander Zverev has maintained his unbeaten start to the season by notching his sixth singles win of 2025. Zverev beat Ugo Humbert of France in four sets.

It was the first time he lost a set at this year's tournament. The match took 32 games to decide and lasted two hours and 19 minutes.

Zverev hit 43 winners and 29 unforced errors. That included 19 aces and three double faults.

Zverev landed 71% of first serves and won 84% of first-serve points (51/61). He won 48% of second-serve points (12/25) and saved five of seven break points. 

Zverev won 44% of return points (46/104) and converted six of 16 break points.

 

Tommy Paul Preview

 

For the second time in his career, Tommy Paul will contest an Australian Open quarterfinal. The 2023 semifinalist beat Spain's Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in straight sets in the most one-sided match of the day.

Paul won 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 in an hour and 20 minutes. He hammered 25 winners and 12 unforced errors, which included eight aces.

Paul landed 67% of first serves and won 84% of first-serve points (38/45). He won 55% of second-serve points (12/22) and saved all three break points he faced.

The American won 57% of return points (35/61) and converted seven of 13 break points.

 

Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head

 

• Zverev and Paul have played twice on the ATP Tour with both meetings being on hard courts.

• Paul leads Zverev 2-0 winning in Acapulco (2020) and Indian Wells (2022).

 

Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul Prediction

 

We've said it countless times before and I'll now say it again. Zverev has another shot at a Grand Slam title here. But this might be the most difficult route for him to lift the trophy. He's got a winnable quarterfinal and then potentially two matches against Alcaraz and Sinner.

Still, I am not looking that far ahead because he's prone to stumble against Tommy Paul. The American is as fit as they come, with just one documented mid-match retirement since 2019. Paul has also taken his game to new levels in the last couple of seasons. His lateral moment is among the best on tour, so that's a key point why he can almost seamlessly absorb Zverev's power (leads h2h 2-0). With Paul's speed likely to frustrate Zverev, the German has to serve with immense precision. And we know for a fact, that once Zverev's serve implodes, then it quickly shifts to other parts of his game. Zverev is the favorite on paper, but this match is ripe for an upset. I'll go with the long but plausible shot and take Paul here.

 

Nur’s Pick Tommy Paul in five sets

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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