Lorenzo Sonego vs Learner Tien Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/20/25

Lorenzo Sonego will be competing in the last 16 of the Australian Open for the very first time. The Italian has defied the odds to make it this far.

Sonego started his campaign with a four-set win over former champion Stan Wawrinka. He wasn't expected to beat Brazilian teen prodigy Joao Fonseca in the second round, but held his nerve to overcome the newly-crowned Next Gen champion in five sets (saved a break point in the fifth set).

Sonego secured his spot in the second week by beating Fabian Marozsan of Hungary in four sets.

The match took 41 games to decide and lasted three hours and 16 minutes. Sonego hit 51 winners and 29 unforced errors including 15 aces and three double faults.

Sonego landed 63% of first serves and won 85% of first serve points (69/81). 

He won 55% of second-serve points (26/47) and saved all five break points on his serve.

Sonego won 36% of return points (48/134) and 92% of net points (22/24). He converted four of 15 break points.

Learner Tien Preview

Learner Tien's presence in the fourth round on his main draw debut is a massive achievement. He is the only teenager still standing in the men's draw.

Tien came through qualifying, winning three matches, and that looks like a long time ago. Tien has since shocked former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in the second round in a late-night epic a few days ago for his best-ever win.

In the third round, he beat a fatigued Corentin Moutet 7-6, 6-3, 6-3 in two hours and 49 minutes.

In the victory, Tien fired 30 winners and 38 unforced errors. He hit one ace and five double faults.

Tien landed 52% of first serves and won 73% of first serve points (41/56).

The 19-year-old won 55% of second serve points (28/51) and saved of 10 of 13 break points.

Tien won 44% of return points (47/107) and 69% of net points (24/35). He converted six of 15 break points.

This is Tien's first appearance in the second week of a major tournament.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Learner Tien Head-To-Head

• Sonego and Tien have never played before, so this will be their first meeting.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Learner Tien Prediction

If Sonego pulls this off, he'll account for two wins against players who contested the championship match at last year's Next Gen Finals. The Italian has elevated his level and is competing with so much self-belief and confidence. He's also the fresher man in this match having played three matches fewer than Tien who had to go through the rigors of qualifying. But Tien has shown no signs of fatigue and he's been moving opponents like chess pieces. I suspect the young American's body can sustain at least one more high-intensity match, but this one is too close to call.