Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/20/25

Elena Rybakina defeated last year's semifinalist Dayana Yastremska to reach the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open. 

Rybakina won 6-3, 6-4 in an hour and 24 minutes. In the victory, she hit 15 winners and 16 unforced errors. By contrast, Yastremska tallied 16 aces and 37 unforced errors.

Rybakina fired two aces and two double faults, which is obviously a very low number, but she had struggled with a back injury throughout the match and trailed by a break in the second set before she sealed the win in straights.

The Kazakhstani landed 58% of first serves and won 76% of first-serve points (28/37).

Rybakina won 59% of second-serve points (16/27) and saved three of four break points.

Rybakina won 45% of return points (31/69) and 60% of net points (3/5). She converted three of 11 break points.

This is only the second time that Rybakina has reached the Australian Open last 16. 

Madison Keys Preview

Madison Keys' first post-marriage Grand Slam has been a revelation with the American making the second week of the Australian Open for the first time since 2022.

Keys accounted for her 10th win of 2025, with a 6-4, 6-4 win over compatriot Danielle Collins.

The World No. 14 spent an hour and 21 minutes on the court, hitting 24 winners and 27 unforced errors. That included four aces and four double faults.

Keys landed 85% of first serves which was incredibly impressive and won 69% of first-serve points (36/52). She won 78% of second-serve points (7/9) and saved one of two break points.

Keys won 38% of return points (21/55) and 88% of net points (7/8). She converted three of six break points.

Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

• Rybakina and Keys have met four times on the WTA Tour.

• The head-to-head is tied at 2-2 with Rybakina winning their most recent match at the 2024 Miami Open in straight sets.

Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys Prediction

I fancy Keys here and it's not surprising, to say the least. Rybakina has lower back problems and sounded pessimistic when quizzed on whether she will be fit to play the remainder of the tournament. She took an off-court medical timeout after just three games in her win over Yastremska and hardly served any aces in the match.

The serve is Rybakina's foundation for a productive and efficient performance, but it doesn't look like she is going to hit her lofty numbers. Keys, unbeaten in eight matches, is playing her best tennis in a while and when she's in such red-hot form, she is virtually unstoppable.