Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/17/25

Australian Open Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac

Friday, January 17, 2025

Betting Odds: Novak Djokovic -400 / Tomas Machac +314 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN

Novak Djokovic and Tomas Machac meet in the third round of the 2025 Australian Open on Friday, January 17, 2025. Here's our Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac prediction. This preview also includes a Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac pick.

 

Novak Djokovic Preview

 

Novak Djokovic is coming off a four-set win over Portugal’s Jaime Faria. The match took 37 games to decide and lasted three hours and one minute.

For the second time at this Australian Open, Djokovic lost a set, but eventually won the match 6-1, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2. In the victory, Djokovic recorded 33 winners and 33 unforced errors. He hit 13 aces and two double faults.

Djokovic landed 65% of first serves and won 76% of first-serve points (56/74). The 24-time Grand Slam champion won 56% of second-serve points (22/39) and saved five of seven break points.

He held in 17 of 19 service games in the match, dropping serve only twice. Djokovic won 47% of return points (50/107) and 75% of net points (9/12). He converted seven of 12 break points on the Faria serve.

With the win, Djokovic broke Roger Federer’s record of most matches played at Grand Slam level.

 

Tomas Machac Preview

 

Opponent Tomas Machac defeated Reilly Opelka in five sets. That means we won’t get a Brisbane rematch of Djokovic and the American.

Machac fought back from a set down to win 3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 in three hours and 29 minutes. The match took 58 games to decide with three tie-breaks in it. Machac winning two of those was absolutely priceless.

The Czech recorded 35 winners and 30 unforced errors. He hit 16 aces and seven double faults and watched as Opelka hammered 40 aces past him.

Machac landed 63% of first serves and won 84% of first-serve points (88/105). He won 58% of second-serve points (36/62) and saved seven of eight break points.

The World No. 25 held in 26 of 27 service games which was quite commendable.

Machac won 27% of return points (47/173) and 44% of net points (4/9). He converted 1 of 5 break points.

This was Machac’s fourth win of 2025.

 

Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac Head-To-Head

 

• Djokovic and Machac have played twice on the ATP Tour.

• Djokovic won their first meeting on the hard courts of Dubai. Machac avenged that loss in the semifinal of Geneva last season.

 

Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac Prediction

 

This will be a true test of Djokovic's title credentials and just before the second week when the tournament gets to the business stage. Djokovic has lost a set in each of his two rounds suggesting he may be performing below his best level. Rod Laver Arena used to be a fortress in the last decade with opponents surrendering to Djokovic's aura even before a ball was played.

That's not the case anymore as Djokovic is becoming susceptible to playing four or even five-set matches. He's also not getting younger and the competition has evolved. Players are now matching his intensity. Machac doesn't have a fraction of Djokovic's pedigree or record in Grand Slams, but he's a clean ball striker and is tactically very smart. My only worry is that Machac's body might cave to the physical demands of playing another five-set match. Still, backing Machac to win at least two sets offers tremendous value at +250.

Nur’s Pick Over 4.5 sets in the match

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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