Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens Prediction Australian Open Tennis Picks 1/12/25

Aryna Sabalenka kicks off the defense of her Australian Open title on Sunday at primetime inside Rod Laver Arena. The two-time champion arrived in Melbourne with a title in the bag from Brisbane in the opening week of the season.

Sabalenka is the oddsmakers' favorite to complete the three-peat at the Australian Open. This is a feat that no woman in the 21st century has achieved. WTA legend Martina Hingis was the last woman to do this back in 1999.

Sabalenka is the top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time. No player in the current WTA roster has come close to touching her records at the Australian swing since the start of the 2023 season.

Sabalenka has reached at least two finals every season Down Under in that time, winning in Adelaide (2023), the two Australian Opens, and the aforementioned recent title win in Brisbane. 

Sloane Stephens Preview

To begin with, Sabalenka will face former US Open champion Sloane Stephens who is unseeded. A few years ago, drawing Stephens in the opening round of a major would have represented a massive obstacle in wait.

But the American is clearly past her prime and has even entertained talks of retirement in the past. However, she still plans to stay on tour at least in the short term, and has joked that if she wins another Grand Slam she will call it a day.

For now, though, Stephens can write her name in the history books by becoming the first woman to beat Sabalenka at the Australian Open in three years.

She doesn't have the form and momentum to back it coming to the tournament, losing in the first round of her two warm-up tournaments to the same opponent (Ann Li). 

Stephens made the third round of the year's first Grand Slam last season but lost in the first round in the four years before that. Her best win at this tournament was when she beat 23-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams as a teenager, but that was 12 years ago.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka and Stephens have met four times in all competitions.

• Sabalenka leads Stephens 4-0 in their head-to-head.

• Their only previous Grand Slam meeting was at the 2023 French Open. Sabalenka won 7-6, 6-4.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sloane Stephens Prediction

I might be in the minority, believing that this match could actually shock a few people in terms of its quality and competitiveness. Yes, Sloane Stephens doesn't really stand a chance on paper against the World No. 1 who is gunning for a three-peat in Melbourne.

Even past her prime, the American has made this matchup quite complicated for Sabalenka, and tennis fans can't confidently say which version of Stephens will turn up here. That being said, three of their four meetings have gone the distance. and their only straight sets match which Sabalenka won (2023 Roland Garros) featured 23 games. The over 17.5 games is definitely the value pick here. Stephens wins at least six games which offers a decent payoff.