Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Sebastian Korda Prediction ATP Adelaide Tennis Picks 1/11/25

Felix Auger-Aliassime was made to work for the victory against Tommy Paul in the semifinal of the ATP Adelaide International. The Canadian saved a set point in the first set and led 7-6, 2-0, but ended up playing a three-set humdinger which went for over two and half hours.

Auger-Aliassime eventually prevailed in a semifinal rich in quality and drama 7-6, 3-6, 6-4. The concerning statistic is that Auger-Aliassime hit a high of 72 unforced errors and only 26 winners of which eight were aces.

Auger-Aliassime landed 64% of first serves (70/110) and won 74% of first-serve points (52/70). The World No. 29 won 35% of second-serve points (14/40) and held in 12 of 16 service games. He saved eight of 12 break points.

Auger-Aliassime won 35% of return points (33/94) and converted three of eight break points. 

This is Auger-Aliassime's best achievement in Adelaide having previously been to a semifinal. He has never won an outdoor hardcourt title in his career.

Sebastian Korda Preview

Sebastian Korda had a considerably stress-free afternoon as he eased past Serbia's Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets. The match took 21 games to decide and lasted 80 minutes. Korda recorded 39 winners and 31 unforced errors.

Of the 39 winners, 13 were aces. He landed 65% of first serves (44/68) and won 84% of first-serve points (37/44). Korda won 58% of second-serve points (14/24) and held all 11 of his service games in the match.

The American won 30% of return points (18/61) and converted his only break point of the match.

Korda will be aiming for his second ATP 500 title after winning one in Washington last season. He has not dropped a set this week and only played in two matches after receiving a walkover in the quarterfinal.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Sebastian Korda Head-To-Head

• Auger-Aliassime and Korda have met three times on the ATP Tour.

• Auger-Aliassime leads 2-1 in their head-to-head winning their last encounter in the Antwerp final almost three years ago.

• All three meetings have been decided in straight sets.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Sebastian Korda Prediction

Auger-Aliassime has played more matches this year than Korda, winning four on the trot since losing to Borna Coric in the United Cup. But he has looked extremely shaky with his serve, dropping at least one set in four of the five matches. His baseline game is also looking far too error-prone. Such profligacy on serve is bound to be punished against a player of Korda's returning capabilities.

Korda only started his season in Adelaide having the spent latter part of 2024 away from tennis nursing an elbow injury that required surgery. The American has returned with remarkable serving authority this week, demolishing Kecmanovic without facing a break point, and at this point I don't think he'll be too fussed about the lack of match play. He still looked sharp and fit. I like Korda to win his third career title.