Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova Prediction WTA Adelaide Tennis Picks 1/10/25

Madison Keys delivered a polished performance in dismissing third seed Daria Kasatkina at the WTA Adelaide International. The match took 16 games to decide and lasted 58 minutes.

In the victory, Keys recorded an impressive 48 winners and only 23 unforced errors. By contrast, Kasatkina only had three winners in the entire match.

Keys fired 11 aces and landed 69% of first serves. She won 75% of first-serve points (27/36) and 56% of second-serve points (9/16) and saved both break points she faced. 

Keys won 56% of return points (25/45) and converted four of five break points. This will be her first semifinal at the Tour level since Eastbourne.

The American has had great success on Australian soil in the past, reaching the semifinal of the Australian Open twice in her careeer.

Liudmila Samsonova Preview

After losing her first match of the season in Brisbane, Liudmila Samsonova cannot stop winning at the WTA Adelaide International. The big-hitting Russian has pulled off some major scalps this week, winning all three matches as the underdog.

First, she beat Marie Bouzkova in three sets, then took almost three hours to outlast Belinda Bencic in the second round. Samsonova's best win so far was in the quarterfinal when she eliminated the second seed Emma Navarro in straight sets.

The match took 81 minutes and featured 20 games. Samsonova hit 34 winners and 17 unforced errors. She landed 61% of first serves and won 82% of first-serve points (27/33).

The World No. 26 won 29% of second-serve points (6/21) and saved two of five break points. Samsonova won 51% of return points and converted five of seven break points. 

Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova Head-To-Head

• Keys and Samsonova have played each other five times.

• Keys leads Samsonova 4-1 in their series.

• Since defeating Keys in Berlin in 2021, Samsonova has lost their last four matches including in Strasbourg last year.

Madison Keys vs Liudmila Samsonova Prediction

I'm not reading too much into their two clay-court bouts, which Keys won convincingly. On hard courts, this is an even matchup that can easily swing either way, particularly when you consider that they have almost similar strengths and playing styles. Expect plenty of short points here as the serve and heavy groundstrokes are set to become impregnable. The oddsmakers are clearly overreacting to Keys' sensational result against Kasatkina, which was expected. Samsonova has the power to match, albeit she is slightly error-prone under pressure.