Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson Prediction WTA Auckland Final Tennis Picks 1/5/25

Naomi Osaka marched into her first WTA final since making her comeback from maternity leave at the start of last season. It is also Osaka's first final at tour level since March 2022 when she lost to Iga Swiatek in the Miami final.

Osaka is making a rare appearance in Auckland, New Zealand to start her 2025 campaign. It is her second visit and first since 2017 when she made the last eight.

In the first round, she beat Lina Glushko 6-4, 6-4. In the second round, she also dropped eight games in a 7-5, 6-3 victory against Julia Grabher.

Osaka dropped her first set of the week in the quarterfinal when she came back to defeat an inspired Hailey Baptiste 6-7, 6-1, 6-2. In the semifinal, the four-time Grand Slam champion delivered her most accomplished performance of the tournament by downing Alycia Parks 6-4, 6-2.

Osaka compiled nine winners and 15 unforced errors. She had a serve rating of 276 which was higher than Parks. Osaka tallied four aces and two double faults. She landed 62% of first serves and won 78% of first-serve points (28/36) and 45% of second-serve points (10/22). She saved nine of 10 break points on her serve.

Osaka won 48% of return points (25/52) with a return rating of 215 while converting four of six break points.

Clara Tauson Preview

Clara Tauson is through to her first WTA final since 2021. The World No. 50 has also won four matches this week in Auckland to make it to Sunday's championship match.

Tauson is making her debut at this WTA 250 event and started her campaign with a straight-sets dismissal of Lucrezia Stefanini. In the second round, she knocked out former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in three sets.

Tauson's most impressive result came in the quarterfinal when she beat top seed Madison Keys 6-4, 7-6. In the semis, the tall Dane beat first-time semifinalist Robin Montgomery 6-4, 6-3.

Tauson needed 86 minutes to book her spot in the Auckland final. She hit 18 winners and the same number of unforced errors.

She had a serve rating of 278, hammering seven aces and two double faults. Tauson landed 67% of first serves and won 68% of first-serve points (26/38) and 58% of second-serve points (11/19) while saving two of four break points.

Tauson won 51% of return points (35/69) and converted four of 14 break points.

Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson Head-To-Head

• Osaka and Tauson will meet for the first time at the Tour level on Sunday.

Naomi Osaka vs Clara Tauson Prediction

Osaka and Tauson have fully merited their spots in the final of the Auckland Open. Both players have powered through the draw dropping only one set during the week.

There is not much to separate them in terms of rankings, with Osaka ranked just seven spots below Tauson at No. 57. But the Japanese star will re-enter the Top 50 next week when the rankings are updated. 

While I generally consider Osaka the clear favorite here to hoist her first title as a mother, given her pedigree, superior serve, and forehand, Tauson has done a lot of good work and has an abundance of power to match her in patches. I'm leaning with overs here.