Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien Prediction Next Gen ATP Finals Tennis Picks 12/22/24

Joao Fonseca remains undefeated at the 2024 Next Gen ATP Finals after another rousing win in the semifinal match. The Brazilian lay waste on France's Luca Van Assche in a straight-sets demolition. 

In the victory, Fonseca hit six aces and landed 71% of first serves. The 18-year-old won 85% of first-serve points (23/27) and 82% of second-serve points (9/11). He did not face a single break point in the match.

Fonseca won almost half of his return points in the match (25/51) and converted four of 14 break points. He finished the match with an astonishing 20 winners to four unforced errors.

This will be his first final on debut at this tournament.

Learner Tien Preview

If Fonseca's presence in the final of the Next Gen ATP Finals is a deserved, then Learner Tien's is a complete surprise. Tien started the week with an incredible five-set win over Jakub Mensik before losing to Fonseca in the group stage. 

However, the young American followed it up with two more Top 50 wins to guarantee his slot in the final.

In the semis, Tien beat his good friend and countryman Alex Michelsen in five sets. He finished the match in spectacular fashion, losing only one game in sets 4 and 5.

Tien compiled 21 winners and 24 unforced errors in the match.

Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien Head-To-Head

• Their only previous meeting before this week was in the 2023 US Open junior final. Fonseca beat Tien in three sets.

• This week, they met in the group stage and once more Fonseca won.

Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien Prediction

When they played in the group stage earlier this week, I feared the worst for Tien who lost the first two sets 4-0, 4-0. But it's quite a turnaround that he made the scoreline of that match a little bit more respectable and then completely obliterated the field thereafter.

But If I try to make a case that Tien can beat Fonseca here, then he needs to be absolutely on point with his lefty serve. The problem though is that he can't outhit the Brazilian in a baseline battle. That's what Fonseca has been good at this tournament, striking the ball with real authority and purpose and his serve is almost always allowing him to set up those points for winners. While you would expect players to defend well with their backhands, Fonseca is making a mockery of that shot, and the stats point to his down-the-line forehand being even more effective in conjuring winners. Tien might possibly win a set, but Fonseca looks unbeatable this week.