Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien Prediction Next Gen ATP Finals Tennis Picks 12/21/24

Alex Michelsen had the safety blanket heading into his third group match on Friday knowing that he had qualified for the semifinal. Michelsen was a tad unfortunate last year finishing his campaign at the Next Gen ATP Finals with three defeats.

But there was an element of good fortune on his side this week, winning all of his matches including the dead rubber against Juncheng Shang which ended in retirement after the Chinese lefty called it quits.

Michelsen has won four sets in a tie-break, harnessing his credentials as a big-match, nerveless player. And he also got to conserve some of his energy for the semis after only playing for 25 minutes in his last round-robin match.

Learner Tien Preview

Learner Tien, meanwhile, stunned top seed and last year's finalist Arthur Fils in four sets to reach the semifinal on debut. Tien had scored an equally high-quality win over Jakub Mensik in five sets in his opening match.

And after losing to Joao Fonseca, he knew he needed to beat Fils to make the semifinal. And he did, with a performance of poise, craft and luck.

In the victory, Tien hit six aces and one double fault and landed 66% of first serves. The young American won 81% of first-serve points (43/53) and 44% of second-serve points (12/27). He saved all three break points he faced.

Tien won 36% of return points (28/77) and finished the match with 20 winners and 16 unforced errors.

Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien Head-To-Head

• Michelsen and Tien have never met at any level before this.

Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien Prediction

Michelsen was rooting for a Tien win over Fils on Friday and had the comfort of watching the match from inside the stadium. The two are obviously best of friends, but must now become foes on Saturday. 

Tien is the biggest overachiever at this year's Next Gen ATP Finals with the World No. 122 managing to secure a semifinal berth on debut beating a pair of Top 50 players. So, I'm certainly not sleeping on Tien here. I think he's got a tremendous skillset to trouble Michelsen who doesn't move as fluidly as a Fils or a Mensik. Tien's clever use of sharp angles on serve and his guile from the baseline are such underrated strengths. This is still Michelsen's semifinal to lose, but Tien's knack for outsmarting the higher-ranked opponents makes me side with him.