Karen Khachanov vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction Almaty Open Final Tennis Picks 10/20/24

Third seed Karen Khachanov reached his second final of the season (won the title at the 2024 Qatar Open in Doha). Khachanov defeated Australia's Aleksandar Vukic in three sets. It's the first time he's dropped a set at this tournament in a tie-break, but he responded by winning the next two 6-3, 6-4.

In the victory, he fired 15 aces and one double fault. Khachanov landed 65% of first serves and won 78% of first-serve points (46/59). He won 53% of second-serve points (17/32) and converted four of nine break points. Overall, he tallied 34 winners to 25 unforced errors.

Gabriel Diallo, meanwhile, picked up his 47th win across all competitions in the semifinal at the Almaty Oepn. He knocked out World No. 31 Francisco Cerundolo with a performance of supreme dominance on serve. The match took only 18 games to decide.

In the victory, Diallo compiled five aces and landed 73% of first serves. He won 79% of first-serve points (30/38) and 57% of second-serve points (8/14). Diallo converted all three points he had in the match.

This will be Diallo's first ATP final. He has won three career titles on the Challenger Tour, the last of which was in Chicago just before this year's US Open.

Karen Khachanov vs Gabriel Diallo Head-To-Head

• Karen Khachanov leads Gabriel Diallo 1-0 in their head-to-head.

• The Russian won that meeting in the first round of the 2024 Canadian Open in Montreal.

Karen Khachanov vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction

A couple of reasons why Gabriel Diallo will cherish this moment. It's his first final on the ATP Tour. Secondly, he is guaranteed to break the world's Top 100 on Monday, regardless of the outcome. But he'll want more. The prospect of crowning this breakthrough run with a title will serve as added motivation. Up until last year, Khachanov had only appeared in two finals in the last five years, which is poor return for a player who has been a top 20 mainstay. But when push comes to shove, the former World No. 8 might be the safer pick on the money line, given his experience. Both players are serving behemoths, and surprisingly, it is Diallo who has dominated the serving numbers this week with 28 aces and only dropped his serve once. If he continues to deliver with that shot, he'll give the Russian a run for his money here. And the wisest move is to take the games spread.