Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction China Open Final Tennis Picks 10/2/24

Jannik Sinner kept his title defense at the 2024 China Open alive by winning his ninth successive match in Beijing. Sinner, who clinched the title last year by defeating both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, has been tested throughout the week, dropping two sets so far. 

But in the semifinal, he was at the top of his game as he ended the fairytale run of Chinese wild card Bu Yunchaokete in straight sets. The match took 22 games to decide and lasted about two hours.

Sinner hammered 11 aces in the match and landed 68% of first serves. He won 73% first-serve points (38/52) and 68% second-serve points (17/25). The Italian converted one of nine break points but was able to save all three break points he faced on his own delivery.

Sinner extended his winning streak to 15 matches. His last defeat was in early August when he lost to Andrey Rublev in Montreal.

Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, romped into his first-ever final at the Asian Swing by defeating third seed Daniil Medvedev. The Spaniard has been dominant in this rivalry in recent meetings and showcased his class once again, albeit in a very tough and absorbing encounter. 

The difference maker was Alcaraz's ability to limit Medvedev's first-serve percentage to a low of 55% (23/42), which meant that he was able to break him multiple times en route to victory. 

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Head-To-Head

• Alcaraz leads the series 5-4. 

• Alcaraz has won both meetings between them this season including on the hard courts of Indian Wells.

• However, Sinner defeated him at the China Open 12 months ago, leaving their sequel evenly poised.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

This should be a gripping match as the best two ATP players of 2024 go toe to toe in only their second final (Sinner won in Umag when they last met in a title match). Alcaraz leads their overall head-to-head and in hard-court matchups. But Sinner knows the ropes now, and what it takes to succeed on a weekly basis.

I'd still have Alcaraz as the slight favorite here as he's shown a bit more clutch tennis during the week, and he's been economical - in the sense that he's been very quick with how he plays and finishing matches, and conserving his energy. The Spaniard has already snapped Sinner's best win streak earlier this season and we are backing him to end another one on Wednesday and lift his first title in Asia.