Jessica Pegula vs Paula Badosa Prediction China Open Tennis Picks 9/30/24

Jessica Pegula completed a three-set win over Veronika Kudermetova to reach the round of 16 at the China Open in Beijing for the first time.

Pegula, who is the second-winningest player on hard courts in the second half of the season, picked up her 26th win on the hard courts by overcoming a first-set blip in which both players had set points back and forth before prevailing rather routinely in the end 6-7, 6-1, 6-2.

Pegula's opponent was clearly not at her smooth-hitting best after the first set. Kudermetova was bothered by a knee injury and required heavy strapping during a medical timeout. In the end Pegula got the job done by breaking serve four times in the second and third sets.

Paula Badosa, meanwhile, defeated the in-form Rebecca Sramkova of Slovakia 7-5, 7-5 earlier on Sunday. Badosa needed almost two hours for the victory, which is her 21st on hard courts this season.

In the victory, the World No.19 saved seven of 10 break points on her serve.

Jessica Pegula vs Paula Badosa Head-To-Head

• Pegula leads Badosa 3-0 in their head-to-head. They met most recently at the 2024 Cincinnati Open semifinals, where the American won in three sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Paula Badosa Prediction

A couple of facts that quickly jump out ahead of this match. 

Since her title win in Washington at the start of August, Badosa has won 16 of 19 hard-court matches, including two here in Beijing. 

Additionally, the Spaniard only failed to win a set in one of those 19 matches (to Emma Navarro at the US Open). It is worth mentioning that Badosa might have preserved a 100% winning record of at least a set in that time if she had not blown a 5-1 lead in the second set of that match.

Taking Badosa to cover the sets spread is the most logical pick here in a match that should be compelling between two of the most in-form players in the last quarter of the season.