Marin Cilic vs Kei Nishikori - Japan Open Tokyo Tennis Prediction and Pick 9/26/24

Marin Cilic arrives in Tokyo on the back of a historic tite win in Hangzhou. The Croatian veteran defied the odds to leave the Chinese city as the inaugural champion of the ATP 250 event and the lowest-ranked ATP player to lift a title at No. 777. 

Cilic dropped just two sets during the week and won a handful of tiebreakers to secure his 21st Tour-level title, which was probably the most satisfying of the lot given the tumultuous past year he's had to recover from knee surgery. With a title in the bag, the 35-year-old improves to 9-6 for the season and will make his eighth main draw appearance at the Japan Open.

He doesn't have the most comfortable of opening matches in Tokyo as he is set to face home crowd favorite Kei Nishikori, exactly ten years since they headlined their only Grand Slam final of their careers at the US Open (Cilic won that one to lift his only major title).

Nishikori has also dealt with his own list of injuries in the last two seasons and only featured sporadically. He is the higher-ranked player in the matchup at the Japan Open at No. 200, but he kicked off his Asian swing with a straight sets loss in Chengdu, China, to eventual champion Shang Juncheng.

Marin Cilic vs Kei Nishikori Head-To-Head

• Nishikori leads Cilic 9-6 in their head-to-head, although they haven't played each other since the 2018 US Open.

Marin Cilic vs Kei Nishikori Prediction

The head-to-head isn't going to affect the outcome of this match. Cilic is the big underdog on Thursday despite riding on a five-match win streak after his title win in Hangzhou. But the bookies have factored in the reality of the Croatian battling fatigue and a super-pumped Nishikori, who has a phenomenal record at his home tournament. I'll have to side with the Japanese man.