Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula - US Open Final Tennis Prediction and Pick 9/7/24

For the second year in a row, Aryna Sabalenka will vie to win the US Open on the final day. She ended Emma Navarro's fairytale run at her home tournament in the semifinal with a gusty performance in a match that took 22 games to decide.

It wasn't the prettiest of straight set wins for Sabalenka, who dropped her serve twice during the match (once while serving for a place in the final), but fended off the American's threat by dominating the second-set tie-break to reach the final. In the victory, she struck eight aces to five double faults and landed 68% of first serves. Sabalenka won 74% of first-serve points (35/47) and 45% of second-serve points (10/22) while converting three of six break points.

Standing in Sabalenka's way to the title is another New Yorker in Jessica Pegula. The World No. 6 became just the third American woman aged 30 or above to reach the US Open final, following in the footsteps of legendary names like Martina Navratilova and Serena Williams.

Pegula faced a much sterner opposition in the semis, as she had to dig herself out of a hole when she battled back from a set and a break down to beat an inspired Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in two hours and 13 minutes. Pegula did not have a great serving performance but made up with her fine return as she broke the Czech five times and managed to win over half of her return points on Muchova's second serve. Having lost in the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam six times before, the American has risen to the occasion this fortnight.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-To-Head

• Sabalenka leads Pegula 5-2 in their head-to-head and won their only meeting this year in the Cincinnati Open final just a few weeks ago. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction

It's fitting that it finally comes down to the most in-form women this summer competing for the ultimate prize. Sabalenka is unstoppable right now and has the opportunity to make amends for her disappointing implosion in last year's US Open final when she lost to Coco Gauff. She dropped a set at this tournament to a big hitter in Alexandrova and was stretched by Navarro in the semifinal, so Pegula can take solace from the fact that the second seed is human.

The 30-year-old has a superior return to those two players and will give Sabalenka much to ponder in her service games. If she asks the questions, Sabalenka's serve can disintegrate, and we know how that quickly transmits to other facets of her game. Secondly, the crowd will play their part here to cheer for the New York-born Pegula, which can impact Sabalenka's performance. While it's not the wisest thing to bet against the Belarusian whose power overwhelms almost everybody on the WTA Tour, she is still prone to fluctuating levels in her play, ranging from brilliant to uncharacteristically erratic. With that said, we're happy to take colossal ML odds of the American.