Jessica Pegula vs Karolina Muchova - US Open Tennis Prediction and Pick 9/5/24

Jessica Pegula toppled top seed Iga Swiatek to reach her first Grand Slam semifinal at the 2024 US Open. Pegula had lost in each of her last six quarterfinals at a major, the last of which was at last year's Wimbledon to eventual champion Marketa Vondrousova. 

But the seventh time was the lucky charm for the American, who produced some great tennis under pressure to defeat a subpar Swiatek for the fourth time in her career. In the victory, Pegula took just an hour and a half to round a 6-2, 6-4 win, landing 65% of her first serves. She won 77% of first-serve points (27/35) and 53% of second-serve points (10/19) and converted four of eight break points. 

Karolina Muchova, meanwhile, entered the 2024 US Open, ranked outside the Top 50 and unseeded. She was in danger of sinking even further in the rankings, having missed a considerable part of the first half of the current season to undergo wrist surgery.

But she came to New York with her eyes set on the prize. Muchova has not dropped a set, despite having to face a four-time Grand Slam champion (Naomi Osaka) and two-time Grand Slam finalist (Jasmine Paolini). Her quarterfinal opponent was Beatriz Haddad Maia, whom she defeated for the loss of five games.

Jessica Pegula vs Karolina Muchova Head-To-Head

• Pegula leads Muchova 1-0 in their head-to-head, winning their only WTA meeting at the 2024 Cincinnati Open in three sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Karolina Muchova Prediction

We're bound to get a fascinating story of the winner of this match. Karolina Muchova, after all her documented injury struggles, can still win a Grand Slam if she advances to the final on Saturday. Pegula, who's had her own career-threatening injuries in the early phase of her career and earlier this season, can reach the pinnacle of the sport at the age of 30.

Neither player has dropped a set, making the prediction a headscratcher. There can be no doubt that the American is the most durable and reliable when it comes to fitness. Miuchova did take a couple of MTOs during her win quarterfinal win, and tipping her on ML appears somewhat riskier. So, we'll play it safe and back the consistent Pegula (who won 14 of her last 15 matches) to make her first major final on home soil.