Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka - US Open Tennis Prediction and Pick 8/27/24

Jelena Ostapenko arrives at the 2024 US Open as the 10th seed. She has compiled a 31-17 record at all levels this season. Her best result at a Grand Slam this year was making the Wimbledon quarterfinal, where she lost to eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova.

She has won two titles in 2024, which is the most in a single year since 2017 when she lifted her first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Ostapenko was a quarterfinalist at last year's US Open, where she stunned World No.1 Iga Swiatek before losing to Coco Gauff. She has lost four of her last five matches on the WTA Tour.

Naomi Osaka, meanwhile, needed a wild card to play at the 2024 US Open. Last year, the Japanese star watched the tournament from the stands after giving birth to her first child. Osaka returned from maternity absence at the start of 2024 and has compiled an 18-16 record.

On hard courts, she is a modest 9-8. Osaka has won the US Open twice in her career, but lost the first round in her most recent trip in 2022. Osaka didn't get sufficient preparation for this year's New York Slam, after losing in the second round in Canada to Elise Mertens and Ashlyn Krueger in the Cincinnati Open qualifying.

Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka Head-To-Head

• Ostapenko and Osaka have met once before and it was in the first round of the 2016 French Open when they were virtually unknown to the tennis world. The Japanese player won in straight sets.

Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka Prediction

It just hasn't quite clicked for Naomi Osaka, who was very ambitious at the start of the season, but the will to win has not faded. This is why I am not counting her out just yet. In fact, she's a slight favorite to win this match. Ostapenko got a very good win over Paula Badosa in Toronto (it could be argued the Spaniard had little in the tank after winning Washington) but fared dismally since losing each of her next two matches. The Latvian's risk appetite makes her a very suitable pick as an underdog, but in such a tight line, we are happy to take the two-time former champion to squeeze through in the standout first-round match of the 2024 US Open.