Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul - Italian Open Rome Tennis Prediction and Pick 5/17/24

Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul

Friday, May 17, 2024

Nicolas Jarry -105 / Tommy Paul -116 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: USA: Tennis Channel Plus, UK: Sky Tennis, Global: Tennis TV Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

14th seed Tommy Paul and 21st seed Nicolas Jarry clash in an unexpected semifinal at the 2024 Italian Open in Rome. The match is scheduled for Friday, May 17, 2024. Here's our Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul prediction.

Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul Preview

This is turning out to be an excellent fortnight for Chileans. A day after Alejandro Tabilo became the first player from his country to reach the Rome semifinals, Nicolas Jarry also emulated that feat with an incredible comeback win over Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas in Thursday's quarterfinal. Jarry arrived at the Italian Open extremely cold, with four consecutive losses. But his unconstrained power has wreaked havoc all fortnight. And in tennis, it only takes one big result to turn around a season. Jarry got the reaction he needed with wins over Matteo Arnaldi, Stefano Napolitano, and Alexandre Muller. But after saving three break points in a crucial game at 3-all and then at two more at 5-5 in the second set, he completed an improbable victory over Tsitsipas, winning 3-6, 7-5, 6-4. He struck 36 winners, including eight aces.

Tommy Paul, meanwhile, had not scaled the second-round hurdle in Rome in each of his previous four trips. But he's now within one win from reaching this year's final. The American reached his fourth semifinal of the season with a thrilling three-set win over Hubert Hurkacz. The match featured a remarkable 13 breaks of serve, but it was Paul who held his nerve and had the fresher legs to win the near three-hour contest down the stretch. Having arrived at the tournament without any Top 10 wins this season, the 27-year-old from New Jersey has now tallied a couple of wins this week against the ATP's elite.

Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul Head-To-Head And Facts

• The head-to-head at the Tour level is tied at 1-1.

• However, Jarry won their lone clay-court meeting at last year's French Open in four sets.

• Jarry is 8-6 on clay in 2024, and Paul is 5-1 on the surface this season.

Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Neither player was backed to reach this stage, but it took two seismic performances from each of them to headline the Italian Open semifinals. Jarry's thunderbolt serve and huge forehands make him unplayable when his game is on, and that has been the case during these two weeks in Rome. Tommy, however, is one of the players who can be relentless with his forehand. It's the weapon that has taken down the likes of Medvedev and Hurkacz. The American's skillset goes far beyond just a powerful serve and forehand. He can disrupt his opponent's rhythm cleverly using angles and slices. I can probably see this one going to three, but give me Paul on the money line here.

Nur’s Pick Tommy Paul ML

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Tuesday 6/25/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 |

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.