Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka - Madrid Open Final Tennis Prediction and Pick 5/4/24

Iga Swiatek (1) vs Aryna Sabalenka (2)

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Iga Swiatek -333 / Aryna Sabalenka +250 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Top seed Iga Swiatek will face defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the 2024 Madrid Open final. The match is scheduled for Saturday, May 4, 2024. Here's our Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction.

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Preview

It's quite a contrast how both Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka reached the championship match at the 2024 Madrid Open. Swiatek has been smooth, free-flowing, and imperious. She's only fumbled once during the fortnight, dropping a set to Brazilian left-hander Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinal. Aside from that, Swiatek has won 6-0 set two times, 6-1 set five times, 6-2 set once, and 6-3 and 6-4 once. It's a dominant run to the final.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, arrived as the defending champion and in dire need of a deep run. The Belarusian looked a shadow of the player who lifted the Australian Open in January, having lost four matches since the start of February. But if there was a clay court with the profile to suit her big-hitting risk-tolerant game, it has to be Madrid, which is at 2,119 feet above sea level. Four of her five matches have required the drama of a deciding set, none more dramatic than her thrilling win over Elena Rybakina in the semifinal.

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-To-Head

• Swiatek and Sabalenka have met nine times.

• Swiatek leads Sabalenka 6-3 in their head-to-head.

• Swiatek leads Sabalenka 3-1 on clay.

• This will be a rematch of the 2023 Madrid final which Sabalenka won in three sets.

Iga Swiatek Stats

• Swiatek has dropped just one set at the 2024 Madrid Open in her run to the final.

• Swiatek is pursuing her 20th career title and eighth on clay.

• She is the youngest player since Martina Hingis to reach 10 WTA finals in clay events.

• She has spent just over seven hours of court time in Madrid.

Aryna Sabalenka Stats

• Sabalenka seeks to defend the Madrid title - last done in 2017.

• 10 of Sabalenka's last 13 matches have all gone to a deciding set.

• She has dropped 60 games during the fortnight - the most by a player who has reached the Madrid final.

• She will join Petra Kvitova as the only three-time champion at the event if she wins on Saturday.

• Sabalenka has spent 10 hours and 40 minutes to reach the final.

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction

Swiatek is looking unstoppable, but Sabalenka remains the queen of Madrid. For how long, though? That's the question here. The Belarusian loves the conditions in the Spanish capital, and it's not by accident that she arrested her terrible slide after the Australian Open on this court to restore a modicum of consistency in her results. The bad thing for her is that Swiatek is looking even more dominant than when she made the final last year. I still think it will be on the Pole's racket, given what has transpired during the fortnight and that average court time spent by both payers could be critical if the match goes the distance. With that said, Swiatek is a solid bet to lift the title.

Nur’s Pick Iga Swiatek in straight sets

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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