Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys - Madrid Open Tennis Prediction and Pick 5/2/24

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Iga Swiatek -1000 / Madison Keys +810 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Top seed Iga Swiatek will battle big-hitting American Madison Keys in the first semifinal of the 2024 Madrid Open. The match is scheduled for Thursday, May 2, 2024. Here's our Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys prediction.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Preview

Iga Swiatek romped into another Madrid Open semifinal after, thanks to a fantastic comeback to beat Brazilian left-hander Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6, 6-0, 6-2. The Pole shockingly dropped the first set despite getting an early break to take a 3-1 lead. But she came out firing from the second set onwards and won 12 of the last 14 games in the match to turn the score around. It was the sixth time this season that the World No. 1 had been taken to a deciding set, and her record reads 4-2.

Madison Keys, meanwhile, also recovered from a one-set deficit. The American was slow off the blocks as she got bagelled by Ons Jabeur in their quarterfinal clash. Keys has had a tough road to get to the Madrid Open semifinals, having defeated Liudmila Samosnova and Coco Gauff before upsetting Jabeur. She found her range at the start of the second set and broke the Tunisian right at the end to level the match. Jabeur's level dipped significantly in the decider as Keys secured two breaks to power into the last four - her first on tour since the 2023 US Open.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Head-To-Head

Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys have met three times on tour. The Pole leads 2-1, with their last match being won by Keys in Cincinnati in 2022. On clay, Swiatek defeated the American 7-5, 6-1 at the 2021 Italian Open.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction

It's a remarkable turnaround for Keys who had lost in the opening round of the Madrid Open in each of her last five visits. But not this year, where she has earned two Top 10 wins this week. Adding a third against the World No. 1 will be a massive statement. Keys told journalists after her quarterfinal win that she's "older and wiser" this time. We cannot ignore her versatility on this surface because not many big hitters are particularly comfortable on clay. Keys is a champion on the surface (Charleston 2019) and is a former Roland Garros semifinalist. However, Swiatek's dominance on this surface remains absolute. She has not lost more than TWO games in seven of the nine sets played in Madrid and is the player with the acumen to return Keys' heavier ball.

Recommended bet: Swiatek Game Handicap -6.5

Nur’s Pick Iga Swiatek Game Handicap -6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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