Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Aryna Sabalenka -103 / Elena Rybakina -123 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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World No. 2 and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will play in-form Kazakh Elena Rybakina in a blockbuster semifinal match at the 2024 Madrid Open. The match is scheduled for Thursday, May 2, 2024. Here's our Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Preview

It's not an overreaction to say that Aryna Sabalenka looked like a shadow of the player who won the Australian Open between February and April. Before Madrid, Sabalenka lost four matches following her Melbourne success. And outside Marketa Vondrousova in Stuttgart, her other three defeats came against players ranked outside the Top 20 at the time. The pattern almost continued in the Spanish capital, with Sabalenka required to fight back in three-set wins over Poland's Magda Linette and American teenager Robin Montgomery. The Belarusian has already ended one streak this fortnight - the 15-match winning run of Danielle Collins - in the fourth round - before stopping teenage phenom Mirra Andreeva in the last eight. Can she now end another streak when she faces in-form Elena Rybakina?

Elena Rybakina is coming off a mammoth win over countrywoman Yulia Putintseva. The tall Kazakh needed almost three hours to beat the feisty Putintseva, who had been her bogey opponent on tour (lost their two h2h meetings). In fact, the World No. 4 looked down and out when she trailed 2-5 in the third set, only for her opponent to get passive. Rybakina sensed this and had to save a couple of match points on her own serve (including a stunning lucky drop shot that clipped the net cord) to hold at 3-5. She finished the match strongly, winning four more games, including two breaks.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-To-Head

Aryna Sabalenka leads Elena Rybakina 5-3 in their head-to-head. The Kazakh won their last clash at the 2024 Brisbane final in straight sets—6-0, 6-3.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction

Although these two heavy hitters had met eight times before, not a single one of those encounters came on clay, which makes this match evenly poised. Rybakina brings an eight-match win streak dating back to mid-April when she overpowered the field to win in Stuttgart. That run came under threat when Putintseva came close to defeating her in the quarterfinal in Madrid. But the fourth seed's serve and clever judgment dug her out of a hole. By contrast, Sabalenka has struggled to summon her best tennis since winning the Australian Open. But she's firing on all cylinders now, with big wins over Danielle Collins and the talented Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva. The tournament's two-week format has obviously helped Rybakina cope with fatigue issues. However, she's been playing non-stop tennis for weeks now, and her fitness has been hampered when she goes deep in back-to-back tournaments. Maybe that could be the impediment here, and Sabalenka appears to have steered her season back on track, especially as she will lose the No. 2 ranking with a defeat before the final.